076
ACUS01 KWNS 280115
SWODY1
SPC AC 280114

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0814 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the
northern/central High Plains this evening and tonight. Severe gusts,
including some 75+ mph are possible.

...Northern and central Plains...
An upper low over the northern Rockies will continue to overspread a
warm and moist air mass across the northern Plains this evening. As
an attendant surface low deepens, strong mass response and an
increasing low-level jet will support further intensification of an
ongoing MCS over the western Dakotas. This MCS should continue
east/southeast with the potential for severe wind gusts (some 75+
mph) and perhaps a tornado with embedded QLCS circulations.
Convection should begin to weaken as it approaches the eastern edge
of the buoyancy plume across east-central ND/SD later tonight.

Sporadic storms farther south have struggled to remain organized
amid warm mid-level temperatures. Isolated storms will remain
possible this evening under weak ascent from the northern Rockies
upper low and the increase in the nocturnal low-level jet. Moderate
buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective shear support a risk for
organized storms capable of hail and damaging gusts, though
confidence in convective evolution is low.

...Southern Plains...
A loosely organized cluster of storms ongoing from the TX/OK
Panhandles into southwest KS should continue eastward within a hot
and moist air mass across the southern Plains. Deep-layer shear
remains rather weak, but an increase in the low-level jet could
support some intensification and additional storm development over
southern KS this evening. Damaging gusts and sporadic hail will
remain possible before convection gradually diminishes tonight.

...Eastern Great Basin and Southwest...
Scattered storms over the Western Slope and Southwest should
continue this evening as ascent from the northern Rockies upper low
continues over seasonably high moisture. Storm coverage will slowly
diminish as buoyancy continues to decrease in the wake of air mass
overturning. Still, residual storms interacting with 30-40 kt of
mid-level flow could support the risk for an isolated damaging gust
or sporadic hail for a few more hours.

..Lyons.. 06/28/2024

$$