063
ACUS02 KWNS 061733
SWODY2
SPC AC 061731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High
Plains into the central Plains on Friday.

...Central and southern High Plains east to the Mid-Missouri
Valley...
As weak short-wave troughing embedded within west-northwesterly flow
aloft crosses the Intermountain West and begins to emerge into the
High Plains, weak central Plains cyclogenesis is expected.  This
will help draw a return of low-level moisture (60s dewpoints)
northward into Kansas and Nebraska, near and south of an evolving
Nebraska warm front.

Afternoon heating of the moistening low-level airmass will result in
moderate destabilization, with greater mixing westward toward the
High Plains resulting in a deep boundary layer.  Isolated storms
should initiate near a lee trough/dryline, from Nebraska southward
to northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, spreading
eastward with time and -- due to cold pool generation -- possibly
growing upscale into one or more clusters of storms.  Damaging wind
gusts would be the primary severe risk with this convection.

Additional storm development may occur farther east in Nebraska,
near the warm front, as a south-southwesterly low-level jet evolves
beginning in the early evening.  Initial storm development here
would likely be supercellular, given moderately strong mid-level
west-northwesterlies atop the low-level southerlies yielding
favorable shear for organized/rotating storms.  While a tornado
would be possible -- particularly with a storm evolving near the
warm front, damaging winds and, locally, hail, would be the more
likely severe-weather risks.  With time, this convection may also
grow upscale, possibly merging with a eastward-moving cluster of
ongoing convection and then growing further upscale, spreading
across the Mid-Missouri Valley overnight.  Storms would eventually
weaken, due to thermodynamic deficiencies east of the Valley, but
modest severe risk may extend as far east as southwestern Iowa and
western Missouri.

..Goss.. 06/06/2024

$$