746
ACUS02 KWNS 060602
SWODY2
SPC AC 060600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL NE AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL KS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central High Plains into
the central Plains on Friday.

...Synopsis...
Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie
Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday
morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central
Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is
expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper
ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest.
Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two
features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid
MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast.

At the surface, a cold front will likely extend from a low over
southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing
more southwestward and back onshore from coastal NC into central GA.
An increasingly diffuse frontal boundary will extend from central GA
westward across the Southeast and into northeast TX. Portion of this
front extending from the Carolinas in GA is forecast to progress
gradually southeastward. Farther west, a sharpening lee trough and
strengthening low to mid-level southerly flow will contribute to
low-level moisture advection across the central and southern Plains.
As a result of this moisture return, the western portion of the
aforementioned front will become an effective warm front, shifting
quickly northward/northeastward across OK and KS.

...Central High Plains/Central Plains into Mid/Lower MO Valley...
Afternoon dewpoints are expected to reach the upper 50s/low 60s just
east of the lee trough in far eastern CO, southwest NE, and western
KS, with mid 60s dewpoints likely farther east into more of KS.
Strong heating is anticipated across the region, with convective
inhibition eroding by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence
along the dryline, combined with glancing large-scale ascent
attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the
northern periphery of the ridge, is expected to result in convective
initiation over the far eastern CO/southwest NE/western KS vicinity.

High-based, outflow-dominant storm structures are anticipated, with
the potential for cold pool amalgamation and upscale growth into a
forward-propagating MCS. Hail is possible with the early
development, but damaging gusts should quickly become the primary
severe threat. Tornado potential is expected to be low, owing
largely to the high-based, outflow-dominant storm structure, but
southeasterly surface winds and ambient vorticity along the warm
front could still result in a tornado or two.

Additional thunderstorm development is possible during the evening
to the east of the convective line (i.e. eastern KS into
south-central/southeast NE), supported by a strengthening low-level
jet and resultant warm-air advection. Steep mid-level lapse rates,
and resultant moderate buoyancy, combined with moderate deep-layer
vertical shear, could support organized storms capable of large
hail.

...Southern High Plains...
Similar afternoon scenario is anticipated here as areas farther
north, with afternoon thunderstorm initiation likely along the lee
trough once the airmass destabilizes. Coverage and intensity may be
slightly less than areas farther north, mostly as a result of weaker
westerly/northwesterly flow aloft and likely greater convective
inhibition. Damaging wind gusts are primary risk.

..Mosier.. 06/06/2024

$$