568
ACUS02 KWNS 291726
SWODY2
SPC AC 291725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and
southern Great Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night.
This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two
thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe
wind gusts in addition to large hail.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level trough across the Northeast and the
trailing surface high pressure will bring cool conditions to much of
the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Farther west, a ridge will build into
the Upper Midwest with a broad mid-level trough extending from the
Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains. Farther south, a series of
weak shortwave troughs are expected to cross the central/southern
High Plains resulting in multiple rounds of strong to severe
thunderstorms.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
An MCS is likely to be ongoing at the beginning of the period,
likely somewhere in the vicinity of the OK/TX Panhandle. Guidance
varies on the maintenance of this MCS with some guidance dissipating
it by late morning and some guidance maintaining it long enough for
surface heating to destabilize with a re-intensification across
Texas during the day and into Louisiana by the evening. This MCS and
its associated outflow will have an impact on location and severity
of the severe weather threat across the southern High Plains
Thursday afternoon/evening with a localized corridor of greater
severe weather threat where this boundary stalls by afternoon.
However, the location of this boundary will vary greatly based on
the evolution of the overnight MCS. Therefore, a corridor of greater
risk remains unclear at this time and may become more clear during
the Day 1 period.

More broadly, a weak mid-level shortwave trough is expected to move
out of eastern New Mexico during the afternoon. This will overspread
height falls across the entire dryline which, from MAF northward,
should be uncapped by early afternoon. Therefore, widespread
thunderstorm activity is expected which should eventually
consolidate into at least a few slow-moving supercells given around
25 knots of mid-level flow yielding around 35 knots of shear.
Eventually, expect outflow from these supercells to congeal into one
or more MCSs which should continue into the overnight period. Large
hail (some 2+ inch) and severe wind gusts will be the initial
threat, with the severe wind threat continuing later in the evening
and into the overnight period.

...Eastern Colorado, across Nebraska, and into southwest
Minnesota...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop Thursday afternoon along a
cold front which will extend from eastern Colorado into Minnesota.
Shear will be relatively weak in the area (~25 knots), but moderate
instability should support some stronger multicell clusters capable
of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Without additional
forcing/shear, this thunderstorm activity should wane after sunset
as the boundary layer cools.

..Bentley.. 05/29/2024

$$