170
ACUS02 KWNS 140556
SWODY2
SPC AC 140555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...THE
CAROLINAS...AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the
central/southern Plains into the Middle Missouri Valley, the
Carolinas, and the central Florida Peninsula.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period extended from the
middle OH Valley southward into the central Gulf Coast before
gradually shifting eastward throughout the day, eventually moving
off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Thursday. Enhanced mid-level flow
will be in place throughout the base of this shortwave, stretching
across much of the Southeast early Wednesday before gradually
shifting eastward throughout the day. Primary surface low associated
with this shortwave will begin the period stacked beneath the
mid-level cyclone. This low is expected to gradually occlude, while
secondary cyclogenesis occurs farther east at the triple point. This
triple point low will likely start the day near the central NC/VA
border before then moving northeastward off the VA coast. Cold front
stretching southwestward from this triple point will progress
southeastward throughout the day, moving off the
Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast by the early afternoon while continuing
slowly southward across the northern FL Peninsula.

Farther west, shortwave ridging will likely be in place from the
central/southern Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley early
Wednesday. This ridging is expected to gradually shift eastward as a
shortwave trough moves through the northern Plains and flow turns
more zonal across the central Plains. Southwesterly flow aloft will
persist across the southern Plains, but a low-amplitude shortwave
trough is expected to eject out over the southern High Plains during
the late afternoon/early evening.

...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid MO Valley...
A weak cold front is expected to stretch from central NE
southwestward into the northern TX Panhandle where it intersects a
subtle surface low. Strong heating/mixing is anticipated south of
this intersection across the TX Panhandle, with the airmass likely
destabilizing by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence near this
front and weak surface low, as well as southward along the
dryline into west TX, may result in isolated thunderstorm
development. Most likely area of initiation is currently expected to
be over the TX Panhandle, where weak ascent attendant to the
low-amplitude shortwave will augment low-level convergence. Modest
shear and high cloud bases are expected to lead to outflow-dominant
storm structures, some of which could produce damaging gusts.

Afternoon thunderstorm development is also anticipated farther north
along the front from eastern NE into western/central KS, with these
storms then gradually tracking eastward with the front into the Mid
MO Valley/eastern KS. Buoyancy will be modest, but shear should be
strong enough to support a few organized storms. Some hail is
possible with early development, but damaging gusts will likely be
the primary severe risk.

Lastly, a strengthening low-level jet and associated warm-air
advection will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from
north-central OK into south-central/southeast KS. Isolated hail is
possible within the strongest cores.

...FL Peninsula...
Cold front stretching southwestward across southeast GA and northern
FL early Wednesday will be the focus for early morning showers and
thunderstorms, with the front and attendant showers and
thunderstorms gradually moving south across the FL Peninsula
throughout the day. Ample low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy
are anticipated ahead of the front, helping support the potential
for deep updrafts. Front-parallel deep-layer flow will likely take
storms north of the front, limiting the potential for organization.
Even so, vertical shear should be strong enough for some storm
organization prior to undercutting, with some isolated hail and/or
damaging gusts possible. There is also enough low-level veering to
support a low-probability tornado threat.

...Carolinas...
Modest destabilization is anticipated across the Carolinas ahead of
the slow-moving shortwave trough. Isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon as this wave moves
through. Modest deep-layer shear should promote a predominately
multicellular mode with a few updrafts becoming strong enough to
produce hail and/or damaging gusts.

..Mosier.. 05/14/2024

$$