Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS02 KWNS 131723
SWODY2
SPC AC 131721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
central High Plains on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging is forecast to remain centered over the central CONUS
from Sunday morning into Monday morning. Weak upper troughing will
persist over the eastern CONUS during the same period, with modestly
enhanced northwesterly flow aloft within the corridor between this
trough and the central CONUS ridge (from the northern Plains/Upper
Midwest into the central Appalachians). A pair of shortwave troughs
are expected to traverse the corridor on Sunday, with the lead wave
moving through the central Appalachians, and the following wave
moving through the Upper Midwest.

At the surface, a weak low is forecast to move across the OH Valley
into the central Appalachians. This low is expected to be centered
over central IL early Sunday morning, with an associated frontal
boundary extending westward across MO into central KS, and then back
northwestward through the NE Panhandle. Some southward progression
of this front is anticipated across MO and portions of the Lower OH
Valley, while the western portion of the frontal over the Plains
remains largely stationary.

...Central High Plains...
Thunderstorm are expected to develop across eastern WY Sunday
afternoon, ahead of a convectively enhanced shortwave trough
cresting the upper ridge. Moderate westerly flow aloft atop
southeasterly low-level will support moderate vertical shear, and
the potential for a few more organized storms. Isolated damaging
wind gusts are possible as these storms move into the well-mixed
environment south of the stationary front. A few instances of hail
could also occur, particularly along and north of the stationary
front, as storms interact with this boundary.

...South TX...
A weak tropical disturbance may move inland from parts of the lower
TX Coast into deep south TX on Sunday. Most guidance currently shows
modest low-level wind fields with this feature, with minimal severe
potential anticipated at this time.

...AZ...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop during
the afternoon across the high terrain/Mogollon Rim, within the
moist, Monsoonal air mass over the region. Low to mid-level flow
will be very weak, but a strong gust or two is possible as these
storms move into the steep low-level lapse rate environment over the
desert.

...Upper OH/Central Appalachians...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the middle
OH Valley ahead the lead shortwave and attendant surface low. This
early morning development should weaken, with additional development
anticipated during the afternoon across the central Appalachians.
Vertical shear is strong enough to support a few persistent
updrafts, but buoyancy will be limited but weak lapse rates, likely
keeping the overall severe potential limited.

..Mosier.. 08/13/2022

$$


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