Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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960
ACUS02 KWNS 190619
SWODY2
SPC AC 190618

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2019

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
WEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms may produce marginally severe hail over parts of west
Texas Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will move east out of southern CA and into western AZ
on Wednesday with a cyclonically curved midlevel speed max sweeping
across AZ and NM. Lift with this system will result in widespread
showers and thunderstorms throughout the period, with minimal severe
threat.

To the east, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move from
southwest TX into the central Plains during the day, and toward the
upper MS Valley by Thursday morning. A surface low will develop over
KS and move northeastward toward IA, with a dryline moving out of NM
and into west TX early in the day. Mid 50s F dewpoints will be
common over the southern Plains due to strong south winds. Despite
this, the boundary layer is expected to remain relatively cool and
stable, with only elevated thunderstorms likely.

...TX South Plains and Panhandle...
Storms will develop early in the day over NM and will move into west
TX by 18Z. Forecast soundings indicate around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead
of the dryline, but boundary-layer temperatures will remain cool.
Therefore, despite strong low-level shear, this part of the
hodograph will be rendered ineffective. However, strong shear in the
cloud-bearing layer will support elevated cells capable of hail.
Storms will spread rapidly northeast into the central Plains later
in the day, but weaker instability is unlikely to support severe
hail.

...Central AZ...
Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day
which will likely minimize instability. Large-scale ascent as well
as southerly upslope flow along the Mogollon Rim will aid storm
development, beneath cooling temperatures aloft. If pockets of
greater instability can develop, then isolated marginal hail will be
possible. However, this is uncertain given the likelihood of clouds
and airmass contamination.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  <2%     - None
Wind:     <5%     - None
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Jewell.. 11/19/2019

$$



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