463
ACUS03 KWNS 130625
SWODY3
SPC AC 130624

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...AND FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across parts
of the Middle Missouri Valley vicinity, as well as far northeast
Montana into western/central North Dakota.

...Mid-MO Valley...

A compact upper shortwave trough over the central Plains will lift
east/northeast to the upper Great Lakes on Saturday. At the surface,
a stalled boundary over northeast KS into central MO is forecast to
lift northward through the day. As this occurs, mid/upper 60s F
surface dewpoints will overspread the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. At
least a narrow corridor of moderate to strong destabilization is
forecast within the warm frontal zone. Vertically veering wind
profiles, with around 45 kt effective shear magnitudes, will support
organized convection/supercells. However, convective evolution is a
bit uncertain and may be influenced by remnant mesoscale features
from convection late in the Day 2/Friday period, or ongoing
convection Saturday morning. While details remain uncertain, the
overall pattern will be favorable for a corridor of strong to severe
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening.

...Northeast MT/North Dakota...

An upper trough will develop south and east across the northern
Rockies on Saturday. By 00z, enhanced west/southwesterly deep-layer
flow will overspread the northern High Plains. As this occurs, a
cold front will develop east across MT, sweeping across eastern MT
and the western Dakotas during the evening and overnight hours.
Ahead of the front, southeasterly low-level flow will transport low
60s F dewpoints into the region, aiding in moderate destabilization.
Favorable vertical shear for organized storms will support at least
an isolated risk of severe storms during the evening and early
overnight period ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2024

$$