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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
524 ACUS03 KWNS 180708 SWODY3 SPC AC 180707 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Storms may produce locally damaging gusts over parts of the Northeast on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large upper ridge will remain over much of the eastern CONUS on Thursday, with axis from MO to the Mid Atlantic. An upper trough over eastern CA will flatten the ridge over the Northeast, as a surface front sinks south across the US/CN border. Given expected upper 60s F dewpoints ahead of this boundary, and favorable timing with peak heating, scattered storms appear likely. Forecast soundings show relatively tall CAPE profiles and weak shear. As a result, rather disorganized clusters of storms are forecast, producing strong to locally damaging outflows, and perhaps small hail with the stronger cores. ...Elsewhere... An area of moderate instability is forecast from NE into SD during the late afternoon and evening, with instability becoming elevated overnight into the Dakotas. This will be in a region of substantial height rises with lift from warm advection with a 40-50 kt low-level jet overnight. Weak shear should generally preclude much severe potential. ..Jewell.. 06/18/2024 $$