689
FXUS63 KEAX 061109
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
609 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers, possibly a thunderstorm, possible
this morning through portions of eastern KS and western MO.

- Potential for strong storms with heavy rainfall Friday night
  Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

This morning: As of 07Z, seeing mid-level clouds develop from
northwestern MO, northwestward into NE. This area is tracking to the
southeast. This looks to be in response to isentropic ascent noted
at 310K. Short-range, high-resolution models are in good agreement
developing some showers across eastern KS and western MO from the
pre-dawn hours through mid day, when the ascent shifts southeast of
the area and weakens. Forecast soundings show some elevated
instability with this activity so would not be surprised if there
some lighting activity as well. For now, have only gone with
slight chance PoPs as confidence in coverage is somewhat low.

Rest of Thursday - Friday: Aside from the potential for showers in
our southwestern zones Thursday morning, the weather looks quiet
through the period of time. Surface high pressure will track through
the region resulting in cool dewpoints in the 40s to lower 50s
Thursday. That high will shift to the southeast tomorrow and allow
for southerly flow to return, advecting higher dewpoints north into
the area. By Friday evening, dewpoints should be able to climb back
into the lower 60s. That increased moisture will portend to the
potential for storms and heavy rain later.

Friday Night - Saturday Morning: Strong moisture transport through a
significant depth of the atmosphere will lead to precipitable water
values pushing 2". This is at or above the 90th percentile for this
time of year and may be in the top 2.5% of the CFSR climatology
for the 3-week period centered on 06Z Saturday. As was the case last
night, instability will be the limiting factor. However, MUCAPE
values have increased and with strong northwesterly flow, we should
see high enough 0-6KM shear values that some strong to potential
severe storms look possible. It continues to look like convection
will develop upstream in NE that will organize into a convective
system that tracks into the area during the overnight hours. With
the ample moisture in the area, these storms could produce heavy
rain and flash flooding. Fortunately, being in northwest flow, the
potential MCS should be progressive, which will limit the flooding
potential.

Saturday - Sunday: A cold front will settle to our south late
Saturday, in the wake of the potential MCS earlier in the day. That
boundary may act as the focus for renewed convection Saturday night
into Sunday. The most likely area for this is southern KS into
southern MO and adjacent areas of OK and AR. But there will be some
potential for this activity in the southern half of the forecast so
chance PoPs look reasonable at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 604 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A subtle disturbance will move through eastern KS and western MO
this morning, bringing isolated to scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms. Conditions will be VFR with this activity and
will move southeast of the terminals later this morning. Winds
will be light from the north through the day and then become
southwesterly tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB