406
AXPZ20 KNHC 080204
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jul 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W north of 05N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is mainly inland.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W north of 05N, moving
westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 115W from 05N to 22N, moving
westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N104W to 12N115W to
08N125W. The ITCZ extends from 08N125W to 08N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 15N
between 91W and 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of the Baja California
peninsula, extending southward to W of the Revillagigedo Islands.
Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere over the open waters
off Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Over the Gulf of
California, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, an area of low pressure could form several
hundred miles offshore of southwestern Mexico late this week.
Environmental conditions are expected to only be marginally
conducive for development of this system as it moves to the west-
northwest, well off the coast of Mexico. Winds may strengthen in
the northern Gulf of California late in the week. Otherwise,
gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the forecast waters,
except pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through mid-week. Moderate seas will prevail across the open
waters over the next several days. revail across the open waters
through the next several days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo, with
moderate winds extending downstream of the papagayo region.
Gentle winds prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to
moderate winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the
4-6 ft range.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Papagayo through Wed night, diminishing to moderate to fresh
thereafter. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail.
Moderate seas in S to SW swell will prevail over the regional
waters during the period, building near rough south of the
Galapagos Islands by the end of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad pressure prevails over the waters north of 20N. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail across the discussion waters, except
moderate to fresh in the west central waters where seas are in
the 7-8 ft range. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, little change in winds and seas are anticipated
over the next few days. Cross equatorial, rough southerly swell
will move into the waters S of 06N and W of 100W by the middle
of the week, persisting into the weekend. Seas may build to near
8 ft in fresh N swell along 30N between 120W and 130W at the end
of the week into the weekend. Winds may freshen in the NW waters
by the weekend.

$$
AL