Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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683 FXUS64 KEPZ 302343 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 543 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 100 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Daily thunderstorm chances will continue with Wednesday expected to be the most active day. Temperatures will remain warm, generally a few degrees above average. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 A subtle disturbance is approaching the CWA from the southwest. WV satellite shows this ripple near the SW corner of Hudspeth Co. at this typing. Vis is showing an increasingly agitated Cu field with a few storms already noted on the radar. Current trajectory has these moving into El Paso within the next 30-45 minutes, so it`s time to complete this discussion to focus on near term impacts. HRRR showing activity overspreading the entire CWA between 21 and 22z as this subtle disturbance continues to lift northward. Main threat today will be heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding, especially if storms can train. Current dewpoints are near 60 with PWAT values near 1.3" toward the International Border with less than 1" for the northern part of the CWA. 850mb moisture transport shows a northwestward transport, so I suspect these values will increase for our northern areas. Damaging winds will also be a concern this afternoon with DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg. HRRR showing activity decreasing after dark, but with lingering showers or storms continuing well into the evening. As we head into Monday and Tuesday, a little bit drier air pushes into the region from the south, forcing the main moisture plume toward AZ. Storm chances will be favored west but all locations have at least a slight chance for thunderstorms each day. Highs will warm with the drier air and re-alignment of the ridge axis overhead. On Wednesday, a digging trough from the north will split the ridge with a prominent center off the coast of CA and a larger center covering much of the Deep South. This will allow the subtropical plume to center over NM and Far W. TX. With the expected alignment of the trough axis and richer moisture (GFS showing 1.3-1.6" PWAT), Wednesday will be our best bet for storms of the period. Thursday onward, drier is set to push in from the northwest, shifting storm chances to the south. Models continue to struggle with how far south this moisture will be shoved. Additionally, this pattern opens us up to disturbances aloft and frontal intrusions. Both global models continue to show a frontal intrusion on Saturday, which will enhance our rain/storm chances. As it stands now though, there continues to be uncertainty with rain / storm chances Thursday onward, and it will depend on which factor wins out: dry air versus frontal boundaries and / or disturbances aloft. Regardless, temperatures to finish out the period look to be just above average, but NBM continues to show 5-7 degree spread between the 25th and 75th percentile for highs at El Paso Thursday onward. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 529 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue accross the area this evening through 06z. Previously, storms occurred at KELP and KRUR but have diminished with some stabilization occurring. More thunderstorms for KELP and KLUR are not expected this evening but light showers may still occur. KTCS is undergoing a thunderstorm with strong wind gusts. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected. Focus of thunderstorm activity has shifted west and will impact the area from KDMN to the AZ state line through the evening. Lingering light showers will continue after 06z through 12z. Thunderstorm focus for tomorrow afternoon after 18z will be more to the west of a line from KDMN to KTCS. Areas to the east will have much less convective activity. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 100 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 No significant fire concerns for the period. Monsoonal moisture will remain in place for the period. Monday will feature slightly drier conditions, which will limit thunderstorm coverage some as well as allow min RH values to drop into the lower and middle 20s. Tuesday will continue the drier trend as well as see an increase in temperatures. Wednesday looks to be the most active day in terms of thunderstorm coverage with an increase in moisture. Starting Thursday, the forecast becomes a bit uncertain in terms of moisture content and thunderstorm coverage. Winds, outside of thunderstorm influences, looks light for the period. Venting will generally range good to very good, decreasing to poor to good on Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 80 101 82 103 / 50 10 30 30 Sierra Blanca 69 94 72 96 / 30 10 20 30 Las Cruces 73 99 74 100 / 60 20 20 40 Alamogordo 70 96 71 97 / 40 20 20 30 Cloudcroft 52 74 54 75 / 50 40 30 60 Truth or Consequences 72 94 72 93 / 70 50 30 70 Silver City 65 88 66 89 / 80 70 40 80 Deming 72 98 72 98 / 80 40 30 60 Lordsburg 70 95 70 95 / 80 60 40 70 West El Paso Metro 77 99 79 100 / 60 20 30 30 Dell City 72 99 73 100 / 20 10 10 20 Fort Hancock 74 101 76 103 / 40 10 20 20 Loma Linda 70 93 72 94 / 50 20 20 30 Fabens 76 100 78 103 / 40 10 20 30 Santa Teresa 74 98 74 98 / 60 20 30 30 White Sands HQ 75 96 77 98 / 60 20 30 40 Jornada Range 70 96 70 97 / 70 30 30 40 Hatch 71 98 71 99 / 70 30 30 60 Columbus 73 98 74 98 / 70 30 40 40 Orogrande 72 96 73 97 / 50 20 20 40 Mayhill 58 85 59 86 / 40 40 20 60 Mescalero 57 85 59 86 / 40 40 30 60 Timberon 55 83 57 84 / 40 30 20 50 Winston 60 84 60 83 / 70 80 40 90 Hillsboro 68 92 69 91 / 80 60 40 80 Spaceport 67 95 67 95 / 60 40 30 60 Lake Roberts 62 87 62 87 / 80 70 40 90 Hurley 65 91 66 92 / 80 60 30 70 Cliff 65 97 66 97 / 80 60 30 70 Mule Creek 66 90 68 90 / 80 70 40 70 Faywood 67 90 68 91 / 80 50 40 70 Animas 69 95 69 95 / 70 60 30 60 Hachita 68 95 69 95 / 70 50 40 60 Antelope Wells 68 95 69 95 / 70 50 50 70 Cloverdale 66 90 67 90 / 60 60 40 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...04-Lundeen