151
FXUS62 KFFC 260547
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
147 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024


...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Overall a pretty quiet near term. Conditions will be hot, with highs
reaching into the mid 90s to just over 100. The main reason we are
heating up so much is due to the exceptionally dry conditions. This
morning`s sounding set a record low PWAT value for the day at 0.7",
vs a previous record of 0.82". Dewpoints were dropping slightly
quicker than previously forecast, however recent model runs have
been doing okay catching this. RH values are still likely to
overperform in many places. That said, minimum RH values are
expected to drop into the mid 20s across much of central and some of
northern GA this afternoon. A Fire Danger statement has been issued.

Thankful, a weak shortwave and SW flow will bring a little bit more
moisture into the area tomorrow afternoon and night. A few scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of an
impinging cold front in Northeast GA later tomorrow afternoon and
early tomorrow night. However, the next real shot at precipitation
will be in the long term period.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Extended forecast largely on track with the previous forecast. More-
typical summertime diurnal showers and thunderstorms return during
the extended in the wake of the Thursday trough. While there is a
small dip in temperatures Thursday and Friday, highs return to near
triple digits through the weekend. Heat headlines may be necessary.

The previous forecast discussion continues below.

31

Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

As the extended period begins on Wednesday night, a longwave trough
will be extending from the eastern Great Lakes into the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be advancing into north Georgia ahead of this trough and an
associated frontal boundary. Precip chances will spread
southeastward overnight and into Thursday as the weakening frontal
boundary sinks southward through the forecast area. Rain chances
will be highest in the afternoon, when temperatures ranging from the
low 90s in west Georgia to the upper 90s in east-central Georgia and
in the upper 60s to low 70s will combine for strong instability.
This instability will lend itself for diurnal enhancement of showers
and thunderstorms, and thus PoPs are forecast to range from 40-60%
in the afternoon. The frontal boundary is anticipated to stall and
wash out by the afternoon, so there will be little in the way of
shear for the afternoon storms to work with. While the threat for
organized severe weather will be low, a few storms may nonetheless
become strong and capable of producing frequent lightning, locally
heavy rain, and gusty winds.

Southerly low-level flow will likely return to the area Friday into
Saturday, which will promote increasing dewpoints, hot temperatures,
and diurnally-driven afternoon thunderstorms through the weekend.
It will be important to keep an eye on temperatures through the
later parts of the week into the weekend. Even with trending high
temperatures down slightly to account for convective development,
highs are still forecast to range from between 4-8 degrees above
average for late June. Highs are mainly forecast to be in the mid to
upper 90s from Friday through the end of the period, and heat
indices are forecast to creep up into the triple digits in many
locations, particularly in the southern half of the forecast area.
Of particular interest will be some locations in central Georgia,
which could see heat index values exceeding 105 this weekend, in
which case Fire Danger Statements would be warranted.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions to continue. SCT-BKN cigs at 5-10kft to return
late period. Chc for MVFR cigs before daybreak on Thursday, but
uncertainty is currently too high for TAF mention. Winds initially
CALM to VRB will pick back up out of the SW/WSW at 5-8kts by
14-15Z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Low to medium confidence Thursday AM ceilings.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  96  72  96 /  10  40  20  40
Atlanta         75  95  75  96 /  10  40  20  40
Blairsville     67  88  67  89 /  20  50  10  40
Cartersville    70  94  71  96 /  20  40  10  40
Columbus        75  97  74  97 /  20  50  20  40
Gainesville     74  93  73  94 /  10  50  10  40
Macon           72  98  73  98 /  10  50  20  50
Rome            72  93  73  96 /  30  40  10  30
Peachtree City  72  96  72  96 /  10  40  20  40
Vidalia         75  99  76  98 /  10  50  20  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...96