643
FXUS62 KFFC 021157
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
757 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024


...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

At a glance:

  - Milder temperatures today with apparent temperatures 10 to 15
    degrees lower than Monday`s.
  - Lower rain chances today with mostly dry weather from the
    Atlanta metro area northward.

Upper high pressure over the lower MS Valley today will expand into
an E/W ridge from W TX to Central GA by Wednesday. At the surface,
the weak cold front that moved S across the area on Monday will
become stationary near the FL/GA line today and become diffuse. High
pressure over the mid-Atlantic states has nosed into the area in a
short-lived wedge setup. This will bring milder high temperatures
today (mostly in the upper 80s with upper 70s in the NE mountains).
Dew points will remain in the mid 70s across the S, but values will
range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s across the NE portion of the
area. Additionally, easterly winds will gust to near 20 mph during
the morning hours. This will lead to more comfortable conditions
today. Winds will begin to diminish during the afternoon hours.

PoPs today will be less than 10 percent across the N half of the
County Warning Area (CWA), with chance PoPs across the S. Higher PoPs
are expected on Wednesday, ranging from around 15 percent across the
N to 60 percent across the extreme S near the dissipating frontal
boundary. MUCAPE values will be increasing on Wednesday, with 1000 to
1500 J/kg across much of the area. CAPE region will be tall but
fairly thin with very low effective shear. As a result, storms should
remain below severe limits. /SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 352 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The frontal boundary that is currently just south of our area on the
GA/FL border is expected to stay stationary which will in turn keep
rain chances more limited to central Georgia just north of the
boundary through Wednesday evening. PWATs are currently forecast to
be between 1.5-2" for Wednesday which could result in efficient rain
producers with any showers or storms that form. Considering the
amount of rainfall central Georgia has received, that area will need
to be watched closely for any flooding concerns over the next couple
of days.

Looking at a break down of the 500 mb ridging over our area as the
high pressure shifts eastward and a trough begins to deepen into the
mid MS valley into Friday. As this trough moves further eastward and
the associated surface low moves into the Ohio valley, a cold front
looks to move into the Tennessee Valley by Saturday increasing rain
chances over north Georgia Friday into Saturday. The front then looks
to sag southward over the area into Sunday evening which is
reflected in the increased rain chances through the weekend. Models
are indicating PWATs at 2"+ over the area into the weekend, so again
any storms will likely be efficient rainfall producers and we`ll have
to keep an eye on the flooding potential although this is still at
day 7.

Outside of the two main boundaries moving through, daily scattered
rain chances can be expected mainly due to diurnal heating over the
area. Temps are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s through the
weekend and with the moist airmass (dewpoints in the mid 70s), heat
indices will need to be monitored for potential heat advisories for
the July 4th weekend.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 754 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon at MCN and CSG. For this
update, have opted to change the PROB30 at both these locations to
VCTS, with better chances to the S. Winds will be easterly through
the period. Gusts to around 20 knots are expected through the
morning, with wind speeds decreasing this afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium for timing of lifting and thinning cigs, high for other
elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  91  72  95 /  10  20  10  20
Atlanta         73  91  75  94 /  10  30  10  30
Blairsville     65  86  67  89 /  10  20  10  40
Cartersville    72  93  73  95 /  10  30  10  40
Columbus        75  92  75  95 /  20  50  10  40
Gainesville     70  90  73  93 /  10  20  10  30
Macon           73  91  72  94 /  30  50  10  30
Rome            72  93  74  95 /   0  20  10  40
Peachtree City  72  91  72  94 /  10  30  10  30
Vidalia         74  91  73  94 /  30  70  10  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...SEC