Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
596 FXUS63 KFGF 270435 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1135 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across a portion of eastern North Dakota Thursday evening. - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across the region Friday afternoon and evening. && UPDATE Issued at 958 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Cloud cover continues to diminish across the area this evening. Temperatures are gradually falling into the upper 50s as of this update, with the forecast remaining on track. Winds are light and variable. UPDATE Issued at 706 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The forecast remains on track this evening with mid level cloud cover remaining across portions of the area. Look for gradually clearing as we head through the evening and overnight hours, with overall quiet weather expected. Temperatures are in the 60s across much of the area, with generally light north to northwest winds. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...Synopsis... Ensemble guidance in good agreement indicating the progressive upper level pattern continuing through the period - with uncertainties surrounding exact track, strength, and timing of upper waves within this flow. The main concern will be severe potential for each disturbance that affects the region. Temperatures will fluctuate through the period depending on timing of waves and placement of the region in the warm or cold sector of each disturbance. For tonight, surface ridging continues to build into the region and still anticipate cloud cover to break, leading to a mostly clear and calm overnight which would allow temperatures to fall into the 40s most areas. ...Severe Risk Thur Evening/Overnight... Water vapor imagery shows the next disturbance crashing the PAC NW coast. Anticipate mid-level warm air advection ahead of this feature leading to scattered showers/thunder Thursday afternoon, with more widespread coverage overnight along with strong 850mb WAA associated with a stronger low level jet. With that said, strength of the low level jet and degree of instability is uncertain, with most guidance indicating very weak instability along with a weaker low level jet, which would lead to mainly showers with isolated thunder. SPC indicates the marginal risk for severe severe storms west of the valley, which makes sense given the most likely scenario of a less favorable severe environment as the forcing enters eastern ND. A low probability scenario does exists for a more favorable severe environment (stronger low level jet and greater instability) as indicated by a minority of ensemble guidance. Storms would be elevated, so not much of a tornado threat. ...Severe Risk Fri Afternoon/Evening... Ensemble guidance shows a variety of scenarios for the track and strength of the upper low as it propagates near the International border, which will have consequences for placement of deformation zone precipitation, cloud cover and ultimately degree of instability as cold front propagates through the region Friday afternoon. SPC indicates a marginal risk for severe storms, which would be a greater risk if predictability increases for clearing and greater instability. Deep layer bulk shear would be sufficient for organized convection. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1135 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Mid level stratus persists in the vicinity of KDVL, but is expected to gradually clear by around 10Z. VFR conditions then prevail through the remainder of the morning hours, with increasing cloud cover during the afternoon. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to work into the area through the evening hours, then persist overnight. Went with the mention of VCSH for now until confidence increases regarding onset timing of better rain and thunderstorm coverage. Winds shift to the southeast by mid morning, then increase heading into the afternoon with gusts approaching 25 knots. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Lynch DISCUSSION...TG AVIATION...Lynch