529
FXUS63 KFGF 032351
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
651 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, primarily for
  northwest Minnesota and areas north of Highway 2. Severe
  thunderstorms are unlikely.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible on July 4th, with a few
  stronger storms possible along and south of I-94. The pattern
  supports the development of a few funnels; however, severe
  thunderstorms are unlikely.

- Additional chances of shower and thunderstorms will continue
  this weekend and into early next week. Severe storms are
  unlikely.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have collapsed and created
brief periods of gusty winds, sometimes as high as 40 mph. These
will continue to be a threat over the next 1-2 hours before
diminishing after sunset. Limited DCAPE will prevent more
organized thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...Synopsis...

The H5 pattern continues to support transient shortwave activity
through at least the next week. Ridging over the western CONUS, as
well as the southeastern CONUS, continues to enhance troughing
across the Northern and Central Plains.

For today and tonight, scattered showers and isolated storms remain
possible, mainly in northwest Minnesota and generally north of
Highway 2. A stronger storm or two is possible; however, widespread
severe thunderstorms are unlikely.

...Independence Day Forecast...

A strengthening shortwave will move out of Alberta and Saskatchewan
this afternoon into tonight, then deepen as it traverses the
Northern Plains on Thursday. As this occurs, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to form along the leading edge of a weak
theta-e gradient. The best chances to see rain will be along and
south of I-94. As the upper low passes over the southern Red River
Valley, we could see funnels develop where the strongest convection
occurs. This should primarily manifest as shower activity; however,
a small group of model soundings allow for a brief period where a
low top supercell could develop. This would be a very low chance
(less than 5%) scenario that could increase impact potential during
the midday and early afternoon hours.

...Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Continue...

The parade of shortwaves continues over the weekend, with another
propagating through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Saturday
and Sunday. Guidance has slowed the arrival of rainfall on Saturday,
keeping us dry longer during the morning and early afternoon.
Cyclonic flow on Sunday will provide more showers and storms.
However, shear is nonexistent, so any storms that develop should be
of the pop up variety. The story is similar to start on Monday,
with chances for rain tapering off from west to east through the
day as the system progresses east.

Western US ridging will try to build eastward next week. Depending
on the strength of the ridge and how far east it can progress will
determine when we kick out the active shortwave pattern we have been
in. If the ridge stays a bit further west, we would remain in
northwesterly flow, keeping the area more active. Further east, and
the area will warm up, with quieter and drier weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The primary aviation impact will be over the next 1-2 hours with
potential showers and thunderstorms. These will be brief and
diminish after 02z. Variable direction winds will be expected
with these showers/storms, but should quickly go back to
previous wind. Winds will diminish after sunset to light and
variable. Showers and thunderstorms may arise after 18z
tomorrow, although confidence is low in impacts to TAF sites.
VFR ceilings will prevail for the entire TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Perroux