089
FXUS65 KFGZ 270913
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
213 AM MST Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...The daily chance for afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms will continue today. Activity decreases for
Friday and Saturday, and then slowly ramps up again from Sunday
into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...One final day of monsoonal showers and storms are
expected today. Activity should be concentrated along and
northeast of the Mogollon Rim. Meanwhile, a trough is moving
eastward across the NW U.S. This trough is what`s shifting the
high driving our monsoonal precipitation. While the high shifts,
afternoon winds will be increasing this afternoon and tomorrow
with gusts 20-30 mph.

Friday will be significantly drier than recent days. CAMs do
still show some isolated activity to the east, including over the
Navajo and Hopi Nations. Overall moisture availability is
significantly lower with these, so showers will predominately
generate virga and thunderstorms will be high based.

Drier weather will presist into Saturday, but isolated shower and
storm activity is expected over the White Mountains. During this
period of drier weather, daytime temperatures are expected to warm
some.

Sunday going into next week sees high pressure building back. This
will translate into gradually increasing shower and storm chances
pushing back west for the end of the weekend, into next week. Each
day next week will bring shower and storm chances, but with
fluctuations in coverage and intensity.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 27/06Z through Friday 28/06Z...Expect
another round of scattered thunderstorms along and north of a
KIGM-KPRC-KSOW line Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions
away from storms. Light winds overnight will become southwest at
10-20 kts on Thursday, but could gust up to 40 kts in the vicinity
of thunderstorms. Diminishing winds Thursday evening.

OUTLOOK...Friday 28/06Z through Sunday 30/06Z...VFR conditions
are forecast with a near shutdown of storm activity on Friday and
Saturday. look for afternoon southwest winds at 10-20 kts each
day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Scattered showers and storms
along and north of the Mogollon Rim this afternoon, with isolated
storms possible again on Friday over eastern Arizona. Gusty, erratic
winds, heavy rainfall, and hail possible in any stronger storms.
Warm temperatures with breezy southwest winds 10-20 mph each day.

Saturday through Monday...Isolated storms remain in the White
Mountains on Saturday, with coverage then gradually increasing
across the state for Sunday and Monday. Warm temperatures with
southwest winds 10-15 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff