Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
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497 FXUS63 KFSD 300413 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1113 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms starting late tonight and continuing into next week. - A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms is in place for much of our area Thursday, with damaging winds and large hail being the primary hazards. Additional strong to severe storms may occur over the weekend, especially Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. - Near normal temperatures and periodic breezy conditions continue through the weekend, with above normal temperatures forecast to prevail heading into the new week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 CURRENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: Pleasant conditions continue across the region, with latest observations showing mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the lower 70s. S/SE winds during this time have also become fairly during this time, with gusts between 20 to 30 MPH noted in areas along and west of the James River. Elsewhere, have seen gusts mainly range between 10 to 20 MPH. Expect breezy winds to continue this evening, with cloud cover forecast to gradually increase ahead of an advancing upper level trough. WAA also increases ahead of this feature, causing precipitation chances to return to our area near/shortly after midnight. That being said, latest CAMs continue to show a line of showers and storms splitting as it approaches the western fringes of our CWA - with one area of precipitation tracking along and north of Highway 14, and the other skirting along the MO River Valley. Showers and storms then look to form a more cohesive line prior to daybreak just west of I-29. As alluded to in the previous discussion, could see an additional line of storms develop during the early afternoon/evening ahead of an advancing cold front, though this development will largely depend on how the morning plays out. If showers diminish early and we get a decent amount of clearing, may be able to destabilize enough to see a few strong to severe storms with the aforementioned line. While shear remains rather meager, a few deterministic models show upwards of 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. GFS ensemble also shows a 40-70% chance of exceeding 500 J/kg, whereas the EC ensemble only showcases a 20- 40% chance. Do think it`s worth noting, that SPC`s latest Day 2 Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk has been expanded to include much of our area. As with any severe weather, we strongly encourage you to have a way to receive warnings. On the flip side, if showers linger longer than expected and we stay cloudy most of the morning and early afternoon, think it will be difficult to see additional development, especially in regard to severe storms. Rather, would be more concerned with the potential for locally heavy rainfall as PWATs continue to increase. That being said, the risk for flash flooding still remains low, with 1 hour guidance for most areas west of I-29 over 1.5". Nonetheless, can`t rule out the possibility of seeing some ponding in urban and low- lying areas with poor drainage. Localized rises on smaller tributaries may also occur. Trough axis swings north of the area on Friday, with another weak short wave ahead of it, although this wave may stay largely to our south. This keeps at least scattered activity around through the end of the week, especially along and east of I-29. In regard to rainfall totals, currently have amounts through Friday evening ranging between half an inch to just over an inch. Otherwise, look for highs to remain in the 70s, with lows generally in the 50s. SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Upper level trough slides across the International Border through the first part of the weekend, with quasi-zonal flow Saturday. Latest guidance would suggest a lull in precipitation Saturday morning/early afternoon, followed by another round of showers and storms for the remainder of the weekend. While a few strong to severe storms may occur Saturday afternoon, believe the better chances will occur Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. Both CIPS and CSU Machine Learning probabilities continue to suggest a 10-15% chance of seeing severe weather across our area. Latest EC/GFS ensembles also show high probabilities (>70%) of our area seeing CAPE exceed 1000 J/kg, with moderate probabilities (40- 60%) of CAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. In addition to this, latest guidance shows steep mid level lapse rates (>7 degC/km) and PWATs greater than an inch. Certainly something to keep an eye on, especially if you have outdoor plans this weekend. Active weather continues heading into the new week, with afternoon highs forecast to rise into the low to mid 80s - a taste of things to come this summer! && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1113 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions are expected through at least 09-10z, lingering longer the further east you go. Southeast winds increase overnight with low level wind shear 35 to 45 kts from a developing low level jet. Winds turn more southerly during the day. Cirrus already are spreading in from showers and thunderstorms upstream in central SD/NE. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may spread in from central SD before 12z west of I-29, becoming more numerous during daylight hours. IFR to MVFR ceilings will spread east through the morning. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible Thursday late afternoon through evening with large hail and strong, gusty erratic winds as the main threats near storms. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SST AVIATION...BP