Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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788 FXUS64 KFWD 242340 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 640 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Today was hot with most locations east of I-35 and south of I-30 achieving heat index values between 105 and 109. An influx of moisture tonight will result in higher heat index values across the region tomorrow, with most locations eclipsing 105 and a few locations peaking near 110. We do not plan to make any changes to our Heat Headlines with this forecast update. Bonnette Previous Discussion: /Through Tomorrow Afternoon/ The summer heat is upon North and Central Texas as an upper-level ridge has settled atop our region. This ridge, which spans across much of the Southern Plains, will help keep precipitation at bay. The main weather concern today, and likely through through the rest of the week, will be the hot conditions that will increase the risk for heat related illnesses. Temperatures will range from the mid 90s to around 100 this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon. With south/southeasterly winds in place today, slightly better moisture is expected across our region compared to yesterday. Although temperatures will be similar to yesterday, dew points will be a few degrees higher. This will translate into higher heat index values, generally ranging from 100-109 degrees. The more concentrated heat is expected to be along and east of I-35, therefore, a Heat Advisory is already in effect. Tomorrow, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer compared to today, thus, more widespread 105+ heat index values are expected. The heat advisory will begin at noon tomorrow for areas west of I-35 and likely be extended for several more days. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 310 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ Strong ridging aloft centered over West Texas will become compromised on its east flank late Tuesday into Wednesday by a shortwave trough dropping southeast from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. This disturbance will help drag a cold front south to near the Red River, where it will stall on Wednesday. The front and the shortwave together will provide a couple of opportunities for thunderstorms, the first being Tuesday night when a east-west oriented linear complex will approach from the north. Storms should weaken as the approach the Red River, but will likely hold together long enough to impact areas along and north of Highway 380. A second opportunity will be Wednesday afternoon when isolated storms may develop along the stationary front and move south, which would also affect areas mainly near the Red River. It is possible that convection may survive as far south as the I-20 corridor, but probabilities are fairly low (around 20%). Severe weather appears unlikely at this time in either case, but gusty winds and heavy rain may accompany the stronger storms. Otherwise, the heat will continue to be the main concern for the next week. It is possible that outflow associated with Tuesday night/Wednesday convection may knock a few degrees off dewpoints and/or temperatures, which may allow for a break in the Heat Advisory for the northern counties for a day. Unfortunately, compressional warming south of the front will add a few degrees for areas that miss out on rain or thunderstorm outflow. The ridge will expand east on Thursday, shutting off rain chances once again and immersing the entire region in hot and humid conditions Thursday through the end of the forecast period. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR and south flow will prevail for most of the night. A surge of patchy MVFR stratus will move north tonight and overspread parts of the area (mainly Central Texas) tomorrow morning. The chance of a ceiling at the D10 terminals is around 20% and greater than 50% at ACT. The patchy nature of the stratus should result in intermittent ceilings before it lifts and scatters into a Cu field in the afternoon. Bonnette && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 99 82 100 81 / 0 0 20 10 5 Waco 78 99 78 98 79 / 0 0 5 5 5 Paris 78 98 78 96 76 / 0 5 20 30 5 Denton 78 99 79 99 78 / 0 5 20 10 5 McKinney 79 98 79 98 78 / 0 5 20 20 5 Dallas 80 99 81 99 81 / 0 0 20 10 5 Terrell 78 98 78 96 77 / 0 0 10 10 5 Corsicana 79 98 79 97 79 / 0 0 5 5 5 Temple 77 98 77 98 77 / 0 0 5 5 0 Mineral Wells 78 100 79 100 77 / 0 0 10 10 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091-100>102- 115>117-129>132-141>144-156-157. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ092>095-103>107- 118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175. && $$