280
FXUS64 KFWD 160603
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
103 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday/

A weakness in mid-level heights above the Texas Gulf Coast and
attendant strengthening low-level southerly flow will allow
increasing moisture content to stream northward into the eastern
half of the state over the next 48 hours. This will eventually
culminate in the return of rain chances to portions of the area
heading into the workweek. Until then, a seasonably hot June day
is in store to end the weekend with highs in the mid 90s. A decent
daytime southeasterly breeze of 10-20 mph along with a handful of
fair weather cumulus will offer mild relief from mid 90s
temperatures and similar heat index values. A couple of isolated
showers cannot be completely ruled out across our southeast and
east zones during peak heating, but this potential is too low to
include in the public forecast. That potential will change heading
into Monday however, as greater low-level moisture content
spreads northward. Some morning stratus is likely to begin the
day, with greater coverage of showers and some isolated
thunderstorms arriving from the southeast later in the morning.
Some of this shallow convection will spread northwestward towards
the DFW area by the afternoon, with rain chances of 20-30%. While
no severe weather is expected, any convective activity will be
capable of brief very heavy downpours in the presence of rich
moisture content. An attendant increase in cloud cover will aid in
holding Monday afternoon`s highs to the lower 90s, with readings
likely only reaching the upper 80s across our southeast.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 232 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024/
/Sunday Night Onward/

After several days of quiet weather, an unsettled pattern is
expected throughout this upcoming week. A shortwave disturbance is
currently moving across the Southern Plains today and has shunted
the upper ridge into Dixie Alley. To our northwest, an upper level
longwave trough is moving onshore the Pacific Northwest. With the
ridge to our east and trough to our west, moisture advection will be
on the increase early this week in response to the south/southeast
low-level flow atop the region. Guidance continues to highlight a
weakness in the ridge, spanning from the Gulf of Mexico to the
Southern Plains over the first half of this upcoming week. This
weakness, coupled with the ample moisture and inherent instability,
will allow for isolated showers and storms across our east/southeast
zones both Monday and Tuesday. Lightning and heavy rain will be the
main hazards.

Over mid-late week, coverage of rain chances will be on the increase
as a tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche moves over Mexico
and South Texas. While rain chances will be higher to our south,
isolated-scattered chances for showers and storms are expected
during this time as the northern extent of the inverted shortwave
trough will move across the region. Severe weather is not expected,
however heavy rain and lightning will interrupt outdoor plans.
Currently, forecast sounding storm motions of 30-40 kts will promote
progressive movement and preclude a higher-end flood threat. Current
most-likely 72 hour rainfall accumulations (Wed AM - Sat AM) show up
to 1-1.5" across Central Texas with lower amounts further north.

Thanks to those rain chances and cloudy skies, afternoon
temperatures will peak in the 80s both Wednesday and Thursday. These
temperatures are up to around 10 degrees below normal for this
time of year.

One particular point of interest will be Wednesday. Over the last
three runs, the GFS has been consistent in the formation of a
surface low in the Gulf that will move onshore and track westward
across southern Central Texas during the day. If this solution were
to occur, rainfall totals would increase across Central Texas and
the ramp up the flooding threat. 15% of total ensemble guidance
members are showing the northern inverted trough, with the majority
of those solutions made up of GEFS and GEPS ensemble members. In
short: while there is still uncertainty in what exactly will happen
on Wednesday, we`ll need to keep a close eye in the coming days as
mid- and short-range models begin to cover it.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

VFR and southeast winds around 10 kts will prevail through the
period with occasional higher gust near 20 kts during the
daytime. MVFR stratus is expected to remain south of the TAF
sites through the morning hours, with some daytime cumulus at 5-6
kft and passing cirrus being the extent of cloud cover.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  94  76  92  76 /   0   0   0  20   0
Waco                73  92  75  91  75 /   0   0   0  20   0
Paris               72  93  73  90  72 /   0   5   0  30   5
Denton              75  94  74  92  74 /   0   0   0  20   0
McKinney            76  94  74  91  74 /   0   0   0  20   0
Dallas              75  95  75  93  75 /   0   0   0  20   0
Terrell             73  93  74  91  74 /   0   5   5  20   0
Corsicana           72  94  76  92  75 /   0   5   5  20   0
Temple              75  93  74  91  74 /   0   0   0  20   0
Mineral Wells       72  93  75  93  74 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$