922
FXUS63 KGLD 260817
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
217 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Not as hot through the weekend.

- A little more promising for widespread rainfall Wednesday
  night, Thursday night and Friday night.

- Severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Tonight...mid and perhaps some high level clouds move through from
the west with dry weather expected. Low temperatures are forecast to
be in the lower 60s to around 70.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...a fairly well organized weather system
moves off the Colorado front range and into far eastern Colorado by
late afternoon, supporting 20%-40% chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Overnight, this system continues moving east across
the remainder of the forecast area with 40%-50% pops currently
advertised. PWAT values increase into the 1.4-1.9" range with
general storm motions to the northeast around 20 mph, supporting
some beneficial rainfall amounts. High temperatures are forecast to
be in the 90 to 95 degree range with low temperatures in the 60s.
There will also be east to southeast winds gusting 20 to 35 mph
during the day, strongest west of Highway 25.

Thursday-Thursday night...showers/thunderstorms east of Highway 25
in the morning move away with 30%-50% chances for thunderstorms
across the area in the afternoon. Thunderstorm chances increase into
the 50%-70% range during the evening before this system moves east
and away from the area after midnight. PWAT values hover in the 1.3-
2.0" range during the day and into the evening before slowly
decreasing after midnight. 0-6km winds remain from the west-
southwest at 20 to 25 mph, supporting another chance for beneficial
rainfall. High temperatures are currently forecast to be in the
upper 80s to middle 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the
lower 60s to around 70.

Friday-Friday night...another weather system moves off the Palmer
Divide and into far eastern Colorado adjacent counties west of
Highway 27 in the afternoon with pops in the 20%-40% range,
continuing east overnight with 50%-60% chances for
showers/thunderstorms. High temperatures currently range from the
upper 80s to upper 90s with low temperatures in the middle 50s to
middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

For the weekend, will be on the northern periphery of a ridge
centered over the southern plains. Perturbations rotating around
it will approach from the southwest each afternoon and then move
across the area during the night with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms. At the surface, will see post frontal upslope
winds on Saturday with temperatures closer to normal.
Surface based instability will be just hugging the southern
Kansas counties and nosing into northeast Colorado Saturday
afternoon, which would be the only locations that could see a
marginal severe risk due to deep layer shear around 45 kts.
Surface instability goes to zero fairly early Saturday evening
with only some lingering weak elevated instability through
Saturday night with scattered showers and isolated storms. Low
temperatures will be in the 60s.

On Sunday, a narrow corridor of moderate instability develops
along/just west of the Colorado and Kansas border by the
afternoon with the moist return flow at the surface. Deep layer
shear will be around 35 kts, and with the better instabilty
expect to see a higher risk for severe storms, especially in
Colorado and near the Colorado/Kansas border. Instability will
weaken as storms move northeast Sunday evening with the severe
risk declining, but if storms manage to cluster may see some
locally heavy rainfall as indicated by the GFS across areas
north of Interstate 70 and into southwest Nebraska. High
temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s.

For Monday and Tuesday, the ridge weakens as a shortwave trough
moves from the northern Rockies into the northern plains. It
will drive a front through the area sometime late on Monday.
However, the area may get dry slotted ahead of the front with
westerly winds. Moisture appears to be very limited and
instability is weak. Models still showing scattered convection
with some synoptic scale forcing on the southern fringe of the
upper wave. Confidence is on the low side for any severe threat
at this time other than gusty winds with deeply mixed inverted-v
soundings. Temperatures ahead of the front will warm back into
the lower 100s and lows Monday night ranging from the lower 60s
in Colorado to the lower 70s in north central Kansas.

Will be post frontal on Tuesday with moist low level return
flow by Tuesday afternoon resulting in modest instability in
southern areas, fairly weak elsewhere. Looking at convection
developing from the southwest in the afternoon with shortwave
rotating around the southern ridge and across the area Tuesday
night. Some suggestion of locally heavy rainfall from the GFS
across southern areas in the better instability, but confidence
at this time range is low. High temperatures on Tuesday will be
in the mid to upper 90s and lows Tuesday night in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1051 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period. The main concern is the possibility of storms between
00-06Z as storms move across the area from west to east. There
is a question of if they will survive and get to the terminals,
but if they do they may be severe with hail and winds around
50kts. There is also a concern of low stratus, but looks to be
more likely for after 06Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KAK