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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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623 FXUS63 KGLD 241940 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 140 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potentially damaging wind gusts with decaying showers/thunderstorms through much of tonight. - Continued hot Tuesday with Heat Advisories continuing in Norton and Graham counties. - Less hot with increasing chances for beneficial rainfall late Wednesday afternoon/overnight and again overnight Thursday. - Quite a bit cooler (slightly below normal daytime temperatures) Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 140 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Tonight...a weather system is forecast to move off the Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide areas and through parts of the area through about 3 AM MDT. The primary hazard from any thunderstorm will be strong, sudden and potentially damaging outflow wind gusts in the 65 to 75 mph range, possibly up to 80 mph per latest WINDEX wind gust guidance. There could be a few heat bursts, especially overnight and during the dissipating stages of any showers and/or thunderstorms as they bring down rather hot temperatures aloft. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Tuesday-Tuesday night...there could be a few thunderstorms a few hours either side of 00z, in the vicinity of some moisture in the 700-500mb layer and near a frontal boundary. High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 90s to around 103 degrees with low temperatures in the 60s. Wednesday-Wednesday night...a pretty organized weather system moves off the Colorado front range and into far eastern Colorado by late afternoon, supporting 20%-30% chances for showers and thunderstorms. Overnight, this system continues moving east across the remainder of the forecast area with 40%-50% pops currently advertised. PWAT values increase into the 1.3-1.9" range, supporting some beneficial rainfall. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to middle 90s with low temperatures in the 60s. Thursday-Thursday night...showers/thunderstorms across the east in the morning move off with some drying aloft and subsidence with only 20% chances for thunderstorms in the afternoon. Overnight, another weather system moves through, supporting 40%-60% chances for showers and thunderstorms. GFS PWAT values through midnight peak in the 1.2- 1.9" range before decreasing. 0-6km winds are generally 15-25kts, supporting another chance for beneficial rainfall. High temperatures are currently forecast to be in the 90s. There could be some stratus lingering across the northeast half of the area through the day which would greatly impact the temperature forecast with lower temperatures. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The upper-level ridge looks to remain in place over Texas for the long-term, potentially moving a bit farther east over the weekend, but retrograding Sunday evening. A 250mb low pressure system over northern Montana will cut into the high and cause a southwesterly jet over the northern Rockies Friday. These features look to move east throughout the day, but could interact with our area enough to produce some showers and storms Friday afternoon. Saturday will see the flow return to zonal as the trough and low move out of the area to the east. A weak 500mb shortwave looks to provide us forcing for diurnal showers and storms Saturday and Sunday. Sunday looks less likely for convection due to the 250mb ridge returning to the area by Sunday evening. Guidance is showing a pretty strong signal that another trough will work into the northwestern CONUS Monday, causing southwesterly flow during the mid-day Monday. This trough could cause enough forcing, and remove the ridge just long enough, to cause some moderately organized convection Monday afternoon and evening, but there is a lot of uncertainty this far out. A far as temperatures, Saturday looks to be the coolest, with highs in the low to mid 80s with Sunday being about 5 degrees warmer. For Friday and Monday, 90s to near 100 high temperatures look likely. Monday has potential for being the next very hot day. Overnight temperatures will only cool into the 60s, with Saturday night being the coolest. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A southerly wind under 11kts at taf issuance will continue through about 00z. Tonight, east to southeast winds up to 11kts through 06z veer back to the south to southwest at similar speeds. Tuesday morning, winds continue to veer to the northwest at speeds up to 11kts. Regarding thunderstorm chances, they are possible in/near the terminal from roughly 20z-04z. The primary hazard will be strong and sudden outflow wind gusts up to 55kts or so. Given the isolated nature of the activity, will not include a mention in the taf forecast at this time. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A southerly wind up to 11kts is expected through about 02z. Tonight, southeast winds under 10kts become light and variable. Tuesday morning, winds veer to the west then northwest at speeds under 10kts. Regarding thunderstorm chances, highest confidence in them in/near the terminal is from 23z-03z. Similar to KGLD, primary hazard is strong and sudden outflow wind gusts up to 55kts or so. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 246 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Dry conditions are expected over western portions of the Tri State area this afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon. The main area of focus each day will be those locales along/west of Highway 27. Elevated to near critical fire wx conditions will crop up in these areas as humidity will lower into the mid and upper teens. Winds will not reach criteria, but up to 20 mph could occur at times. There will be southerly flow this afternoon, but a shift to northerly on Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 247 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 With hot conditions expected over the area today, with highs at least 100F to 106F, there could be some locales coming within a few degrees of at least tying the daily record(s). The records for Monday, June 24th listed below are for comparison to the expected forecast. Monday, 6/24 Goodland KS 109F in 2012 Burlington CO 107F in 1954 Hill City KS 114F in 2012 McCook NE 107F in 1943 Colby KS 107F in 2012 Tribune KS 109F in 2012 Yuma CO 103F in 2002 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ002>004- 014>016-028-029. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ004-016. CO...None. NE...Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...99 FIRE WEATHER... CLIMATE...