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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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559 FXUS63 KGRR 271728 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 128 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet through Early Friday - Showers and storms Friday Night/Saturday - Cool High Pressure for early Next Week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 - Quiet through Early Friday Surface high pressure will hold over the region through early Friday leading to quiet and dry weather. Comfortable temperatures in the 70s to low 80s are expected with dewpoints around 50 to 55. Wind will stay primarily northerly today and will shift southerly Friday morning ahead of an approaching system Friday night into Saturday. - Showers and storms Friday Night/Saturday A belt of fast westerlies persists across the northern CONUS through the late week and into next week. Shortwave troughs will bring a chance of rain late Friday into Saturday and again Monday night into Tuesday. In between there will be a Canadian surface high bringing low humidity and cool temperatures. Rain chances increasing Friday afternoon and evening as moisture pools ahead of the advancing cold front. Model consensus still has the greatest chance for showers and storms late Friday night. A severe weather threat may be possible late Friday night into early Saturday as Lower Michigan is in the warm sector and model soundings show around 30 knots of shear ahead of the cold front. The limiting factor is the diurnal minimum instability and the persistence of convective inhibition during the expected late night timing of the storms. - Cool High Pressure for early Next Week Surface high builds in behind the front with dry and cool weather for Sunday into Monday, then another chance of showers as the next shortwave trough approaches Monday night and Tuesday. Lows Sunday night expected to dip down into the 40s in the rural areas. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 VFR conditions are expected to dominate through this forecast period. Only a few wisps of cirrus and a few fair weather cumulus clouds are present at the beginning of this period. This will remain the case until overnight as high clouds will thicken up, and lower to around 10-15k ft agl. This will remain the case through 18z Friday at all sites. Lower clouds and some rain will move in after this forecast period. Winds from the NNW will diminish overnight to less than 5 knots. Winds will then pick up from the SE by Friday afternoon. Some wind gusts can be expected of 18-22 knots Friday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Waves will diminish from north to south this morning, but a subtle increase of northwest wind this afternoon may increase waves to 2 to 3 feet for beaches south of Muskegon. Current forecasts suggest this brief push of wind will be too short lived to build waves to hazardous levels, but wave heights may be worth monitoring this afternoon. Waves diminish late tonight as the center of the high moves overhead and winds shift offshore. Winds shift more southerly early Friday and build into the late morning to afternoon. These southerly winds will build wave heights early Friday into the afternoon. Conditions will be hazardous to small craft and a beach hazard statement may be needed for this time period as well. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ostuno/Thielke AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...Thielke