Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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713 FXUS64 KHGX 220532 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1232 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Scattered showers have begun to build across the greater Houston area, with the highest amounts in localized areas being about 0.25 inches. These pop-ups are expected to continue into this evening, with additional rainfall being less than 0.1 inches. Rain should not continue overnight with the loss of daytime heating after sunset. Low temperatures tonight should be in the middle to upper 70s, with low 80s being possible along the immediate coastline. The high pressure system over the Gulf coast continues to build throughout tonight and tomorrow, leading to warmer temperatures across most of the region. Expect widespread low 90s, with some middle to high 80s in our coastal counties. With our newest tropical friend remaining in the Southwestern Gulf, our rain chances for tomorrow remain low. Some very isolated diurnal thunderstorms are a possibility in the middle to late afternoon and along the immediate coast, though will likely be short lived with low rainfall rates. Ellis/Cady && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Sunday is National Hydration Day, but you`re definitely going to want to celebrate that throughout the week as temperatures remain solidly in the low to mid 90s. A mid/upper level high remains in place over the Southern Plains throughout the weekend and into next week, which will serve to increase subsidence and thus provide us with temperatures in the 90s. A slight increase in moisture from a potentially developing tropical system in the Bay of Campeche early next week will keep PW values in the 1.7"-2.0" (75th percentile: ~1.87"). That elevated moisture will do two things: for one it`ll lead to daily rain chances (albeit on the light and scattered side since there will be subsidence to overcome) and increase humidity (thus increasing heat index values). Hmmm actually three things! We`ll likely see an increase in probabilities for patchy fog during the overnight hours early next week. Temperatures next week will be mostly in the mid 90s north of I-10 (with isolated instances of upper 90s in the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods) and low 90s south of I-10. Combine that with dew points solidly in the upper 70s to near 80F and we have heat index values that are likely to reach Heat Advisory criteria (108F or greater). We could be looking at a multi-day stretch of heat index values at least flirting with advisory criteria. By midweek, the main ridge axis slides off to the west as an upper level trough sweeps through the Mississippi River Valley. This places us in northwesterly flow aloft, so we may catch the tail end of storms moving in from the northwest ahead of a weak frontal boundary (that front will come nowhere near us...it`s summer). We are officially in astronomical summer now, but with an expected multi-day stretch of heat index values well into the triple digits now would be a good time to brush up on your heat safety tips. There won`t be much relief during the overnight hours with low temperatures only bottoming out in the upper 70s to near 80F. Batiste && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 VFR, virtually SKC overnight. CXO has shown potential for some light fog, so went with 6SM BR overnight there to indicate variable amounts of VFR fog, as it is a known foggy spot. However, not anticipating it making it down to MVFR...though it is CXO, so there`s always a chance. Similarly, have a smattering of FEW/SCT at MVFR heights for potential small amounts of lower cloud, but no expectation of enough cover to force a CIG. ESE-SE winds pick up to around 10 knots for the afternoon, then we calm back down again after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Moderate easterly winds persist this afternoon, but have fallen below the advisory threshold. Elevated seas persist in the offshore Gulf waters and are expected to remain around 7 feet through the late afternoon hours. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for coastal areas around Galveston Bay into Saturday afternoon with water levels forecast to reach around 3 to 3.5 feet above MLLW during high tide on Saturday. With the next potential tropical system developing in the Bay of Campeche late this weekend, the increased risk of rip currents will remain throughout the weekend. While the weekend will be mostly dry, but beginning early next week there will be daily chances for showers and storms due to increasing moisture from a potentially developing tropical system. This potential tropical system is anticipated to develop in a similar location to Alberto and also take a similar path. However, we are not expecting much if any impacts from this system other than increasing rain chances, continued high risk of rip currents, and slightly elevated water levels during high tide. Mariners are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecast and tropical updates. Batiste && .TROPICAL... Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Latest satellite imagery shows a large area of thunderstorms around and over the Yucatan Peninsula. This is expected to become a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche late Friday night and could potentially become a tropical depression over the weekend. This system will take a very similar track as Alberto and drift westward or west-northwestward into the eastern Mexico coastline. As far as local impacts go, we`re not expecting anything close to what we saw with Alberto earlier this week. At most, we`re looking at an increased risk in rip currents, elevated rain chances due to increasing moisture, and slightly elevated tide levels during times of high tide (but not as robust as what we saw with Alberto). The National Hurricane Center still has the probability of formation into a tropical cyclone within 2 days at 50% (medium) and at 60% (medium) within 7 days. Long story short, this is not Alberto part 2 and we are not going to see any substantial impacts from this system as it moves into eastern Mexico late this weekend/early next week. Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts for any updates from the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 71 95 76 96 / 0 10 0 10 Houston (IAH) 74 95 78 95 / 0 20 0 30 Galveston (GLS) 81 89 82 89 / 10 30 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ214- 313-338-438-439. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for GMZ370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cady LONG TERM....Batiste AVIATION...Luchs MARINE...Batiste