Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
796 FXUS64 KHGX 240421 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1121 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Today`s observed weather conditions (as of the writing of this discussion) should be generally characteristic of the upcoming week, albeit with the potential for scattered thunderstorms on a slight increasing trend over the course of the week. Observed highs at the 3 PM hour have generally settled in the lower to mid 90s, with mid-70s dew points pushing apparent temperature values into the 100-105 range for most locations. Some airmass/diurnally driven thunderstorms have continued to move inland off of the Gulf through the afternoon, though any storms that have developed have (and will remain) short-lived and have produced mostly inconsequential rainfall totals. Overnight lows, aided by light but nonetheless steady WAA, should remain mostly in the upper 70s with variable winds prevailing. Mid/upper ridging will continue to dominate the synoptic picture as we head into next week, allowing for a very slight increase in maximum temps over the course of the next several days as the ridge continues to strengthen over the South Central CONUS. Daytime highs tomorrow should reach the mid 90s, which, combined with mid-70s dew points, will produce conditions just under what would generally necessitate a Heat Advisory. Another slight chance of diurnally driven showers/storms remains in the forecast, but rainfall amounts will once again be minimal. Another night of mid to upper 70s lows is also expected tomorrow. Cady && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 The extended period will continue to be dominated by upper ridging over the South Central CONUS, providing the Greater Houston area with a typical, relatively benign summertime pattern. The main concern during this time will be the prospect for excessive heat, with maximum Heat Index values expected to approach the 110 mark for many locations over the course of the week while WBGT may reach black flag conditions at times. Given this, it`s likely that some or all of the area will be under a Heat Advisory at times throughout the week. In general, daytime highs in the mid to occasionally upper 90s with mid-70s dew points can be expected each afternoon with light to moderate SE winds. Daily chances for airmass/diurnally driven storms remain in the forecast, mainly focused along the advancing sea/bay breeze and with chances highest along and south of the I-10 corridor. While a few storms may occur for any individual location over the course of the week, measurable rainfall amounts will be fairly minimal. The prevailing ridge will weaken slightly and shift to the west by Thursday, allowing an embedded shortwave to potentially trigger some more widespread storms. However, PoP values generally max out in he 30-40% range for the time being. Cady && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Not much change to the ongoing TAFS. Expecting a few SHRA to begin near the coast around 12Z, so have a VCSH at GLS. ISO to SCT SHRA expected further inland late morning and into the aft. Could see a few patches of brief MVFR fog early morning at LBX, CXO, and SGR. SE winds will increase to 8-10 kts with heating/mixing, then subside aft sunset. Wood && .MARINE... Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Generally benign marine conditions are expected over the course of the upcoming week, with daily thunderstorm chances in the forecast but overall storm coverage remaining low. Seas will remain on a diminishing trend, reaching around 2 feet by Tuesday. Winds will remain out of the southwest, staying below caution criteria throughout the upcoming week. Cady && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 95 75 96 / 0 10 0 10 Houston (IAH) 77 95 77 95 / 0 20 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 81 89 81 88 / 10 20 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ439. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cady LONG TERM....Cady AVIATION...Wood MARINE...Cady