499
FXUS64 KHUN 211512
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1012 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1012 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

High pressure continues to tell the tale across the TN Valley
today. This promotes subsidence across the region. A focal point
for cumulus appears to be along a weak boundary extending along
the Appalachians. The high to the north should nudge this and
further weaken the boundary to the south of the area by this
afternoon.

As a result, the skies should remain mostly clear across the area
for today. Highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s by the
mid-afternoon hours. Models are trending with slightly higher
dewpoints today compared to Thursday, so heat indices should also
rise into the upper-90s by this afternoon as well. Make sure to
take breaks and stay hydrated when outdoors.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The hot, humid, and dry pattern will continue through the weekend.
With the upper ridge and high pressure remaining overhead, expect
more of the same with afternoon highs Sat and Sun in the mid to
upper 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. At this time
maximum heat index values this weekend reach the triple digits by
the afternoon, but remain below criteria for a Heat Advisory.
Regardless, it will be quite warm out and those with outside plans
should drink plenty of water and find areas of shade when
possible. On Sunday night a weak trough attempts to drop down from
the Ohio River Valley. This boundary should provide a low
(15-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into
early Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

A more unsettled pattern appears will return, as a warm upper ridge
moves towards the Southern High Plains, and upper troughing amplifies
across the NE CONUS. This shift in the upper level flow pattern and
a return of more moisture will bring chances of showers and
thunderstorms, and hopefully help alleviate near drought conditions
developing over this region. But hot and humid conditions will
continue despite rain chances early next week. Going with the NBM
(which has been underplaying high temperatures as of late), highs on
Monday should rise into the low/mid 90s. Lower 70s dewpoints and this
warmth will produce heat index readings from the mid 90s to 107
degrees. The higher end of this was over parts of western Lauderdale
and northern Colbert counties, and southern Madison, Limestone and
NE Morgan and NW Marshall counties. A SW flow and strong early summer
solar input will make for an even warmer day Tue with highs in the
mid/upper 90s, and a similar area being impacted by heat index values
above 105 degrees. Heat Advisories may be needed should this trend
continue in future forecasts.

This heat and moisture return brings chances of showers and
thunderstorms on Mon/Tue, mainly in the afternoon coinciding with the
most unstable time of day. Even deeper moisture arriving Wednesday
with precipitable water amounts rising into the 1.5" to 2" range,
will bring moderate to high (40-60%) rain chances Wed/Wed night. A
cold front approaching from the north will help enhance rain chances,
with some of the rain locally heavy during Wed. High precipitable
water amounts sometimes result in electrically active storms as
well. With more clouds and better rain chances, high temps for the
midweek and Thursday should trend into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Low temperatures next week will range mainly in the low/mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Light winds with VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM....Serre
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...GH