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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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523 FXUS63 KICT 261723 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1223 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms early this morning across southeast KS with some strong/severe storms possible - Active pattern looks to remain in place with storms possible late tonight into Thu across mainly Central KS with another round Thu night into Fri morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 213 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Currently have widespread convection from central MO into southeast Nebraska and north central KS and are diving quickly southeast. This activity is developing in an area of good 850-700mb moisture transport and also along a mid level baroclinc zone. Some additional storms developed a few hours ago across southeast KS along the same mid level temp gradient. Obviously with the severity of the storms there are no lack of elevated instability or effective shear. Storms are expected to continue tracking south and southeast with southeast KS having the best chance to see storms early this morning. With still around 2,000J/KG CAPE above 850mb and 30- 40kts of effective shear, strong and severe storms will be possible with the stronger activity. Storms are expected to move south of the forecast area by late this morning leaving hot and dry conditions in place for the remainder of the day. Water vapor imagery shows a weak upper impulse over northern portions of the Central Great Basin. This feature will quickly track east today, moving out across the Central Rockies this evening. This will bring another round of convection coming off the High Plains tonight with good model agreement on storms moving into northwest KS generally after 03z and central KS after 06z. Just like what is occurring now, MCS will be the result of impressive 850- 700mb theta-e advection with another mid level baroclinc zone in place. In addition, PW values will be around 175% of normal across the western half of KS. Storms are expected to continue across at least central KS through Thu morning with this activity possibly laying out one or more outflow boundaries which may keep some convection around Thu afternoon, especially across Central KS. There is some model agreement in an additional upper perturbation, that is currently over the Desert Southwest, moving out across KS Thu evening which may bring yet another around of convection to central KS into Nebraska. By Fri morning, MCS should be moving across eastern KS with dry conditions expected for most of Fri. However, a cold front will sag south on Fri evening in response to a shortwave trough tracking across the Northern Plains. This will keep storm chances going for Fri night thru Sat night, especially across southern KS where the boundary will be situated. Upper ridging will build across the Southern Plains for Sun into Mon and will allow the better storm chances to lift north for the start of the work week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF period with light winds. Temperatures will remain hot and humid which will push density altitude readings close to the 4000 ft mark but should not exceed that by much. After 09Z tonight, the chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase. KGBD, KRSL and KSLN are the most likely terminals to see this thunderstorm activity with KHUT and KICT likely to only see some light shower activity. Confidince is rather low at this point and thus only useed a PROB30 at this time. Otherwise, no significant aviation weather issues are expected for this TAF period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...ELM