Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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660 FXUS62 KILM 260506 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 106 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend. Two cold fronts will move into the region on Thursday and Monday bringing increased chances of thunderstorms. Hot temperatures will cool back to normal early next week. && .UPDATE... Observed low clouds, convective debris clouds, and ongoing light mixing may hinder the development of widespread fog previously forecast. Although, confidence is still low given the favorable environment in place, especially inland. Have maintained some areas of fog across the inland areas with higher dew points and temperatures along the coast likely creating patchy coverage, but this has been decreased slightly from earlier updates in areas where satellite and surface obs show low clouds developing. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As a surface front washed out today, the onshore flow this morning was enhanced by outflow from offshore convection. The low-level moisture and outflow have provided more cloud cover than anticipated. Isolated convection has just formed in the past hour in southern Georgetown. The convection is expected to remain isolated through the evening. Overnight, isolated fog is possible toward sunrise. Wednesday will be another hot day, with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s inland and lower 90s at the coast. The heat indices will again reach into the lower 100s on Wednesday afternoon and will be close to heat advisory conditions. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Hot and humid conditions continue, with low temps in the mid 70s and forecasted highs Thursday afternoon in the upper 90s (away from the coast). Increased variability in the afternoon temps is likely as lingering front inland, sea breeze, and an upper shortwave passage combine to bring scattered convection to the area into the evening hours Thursday. No severe weather concerns at this time given minimal shear - however slow storm motions (less than 10 kts) could lead to isolated pockets of heavy rain accumulations. Depending on cloud and storm coverage, most areas will likely see heat indices in the triple digits Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Extended period of above normal temperatures and elevated humidity will continue through Sunday, with heat advisories possible each day (heat indices >=105F). Diurnal storms possible Friday and Saturday with afternoon sea breeze and Piedmont trough, although weak upper ridge nearby and some dry air aloft will limit coverage both days. An upper trough passing well to the north Sunday will weaken the ridge, with guidance showing PWATs increasing to over 2" Sunday into Sunday night. Typical daytime convection Sunday with continued chances into Monday as a cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Temperatures may drop to near normal for early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Stratus developing inland this morning in the wake of convective outflow. Have decreased the coverage of morning fog due to light winds, debris clouds, and the recent development of stratus. Still expect inland areas to have some VIS restrictions, with a better chance of low stratus (primarily IFR near sunrise). Along the coast, MVFR is likely in onshore flow and convective debris clouds. VFR for the rest of the day after 13Z. Isolated showers and storms very similar to yesterday, primarily in coastal SC. Extended Outlook...VFR should prevail outside of periodic MVFR/IFR during diurnal showers/thunderstorms plus spotty morning low clouds/fog. Thursday afternoon and evening has the highest potential for convection affecting local airports. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday...Over the next 24 hours, we can expect a shift in wind direction as high pressure attempts to build back west over the coast waters. The northeast winds this afternoon will gradually veer to the south by Wednesday. Wind speeds will maintain a steady 10 knots overnight but will pick up to 10 to 13 knots by Wednesday afternoon. As for the seas, we anticipate a slow subsiding from 3 to 4 feet to 3 feet by Wednesday. Wednesday Night through Saturday...Southerly flow around Bermuda high dominates the coastal waters Wednesday night into the weekend, with brief backing to southeasterly Saturday. Wind speeds 10-15 kts Wednesday night and Thursday, with gusts around 20 kts Wed night, lower to around 10 kts Friday and Saturday. Seas around 3 ft Wed night and Thursday lowers to 2-3 ft Friday into the weekend, mix of S wind wave and a 2-3 ft 9 sec SE swell. Best chance for thunderstorms over the coastal waters will come Thursday evening into overnight hours as an upper level trough moves across the area, with widely scattered overnight convection every other night. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...21 NEAR TERM...RH SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...21 MARINE...VAO/RH