Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
385 FXUS62 KILM 121807 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 207 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Fairly typical summertime weather expected across the eastern Carolinas this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Visible satellite imagery as well as a good old-fashioned step outside shows that cumulus clouds are only minimally agitated/vertical along the seabreeze. Convection is still expected to fire in an isolated fashion (underway already near MHX), especially given the strong instability present. Mid level lapse rates are abysmal and shear is non-existent so no storm organization expected. Rain-free conditions tonight with muggy dewpoints again in the mid 70s. Some guidance has a little fog but it may only be of aviation concerns. The Piedmont trough may sharpen slightly heading into Sunday while a subtle mid level ridge builds overhead turning 500mb flow to the north. The seabreeze will have a slightly harder time pushing inland, the end result being low end chc POPs area- wide as the afternoon warms into the low to mid 90s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mid level ridging will more or less be the feature of note for the beginning of the work week. Good convective coverage is expected during the afternoon and evening hours although pops seem to have incrementally decreased. Highs will be in the lower 90s Monday then slightly cooler Tuesday with overnight lows in the lower to mostly middle 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... There appears to be some subtle changes or trends this afternoon with the extended forecast. Pops remain high early on then trend downward by the end of the week as the mid level ridge moves closer to an overhead position. Temperatures seemingly nice for this time of the year with highs near 90 and lows in the lower to middle 70s trend up slowly once again via the positioning of the mid level ridge. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Another afternoon with minimal thunderstorm coverage, especially by July standards. Most of the activity will be south of the area, so FLO may have the best chance to see lowered categories. Along the coast the seabreeze will yield isolated coverage at best. The lower confidence comes with tonight`s fog potential. But given that we are in a persistence pattern feel that the foggier solutions are erroneous, an idea supported by probabilistic guidance. Perhaps patches of MVFR inland will be possible especially should it rain today near a terminal. Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through Sunday... Surface gradient weakens gradually through the period as the Piedmont trough both sharpens and spreads east a bit closer to the coast by Sunday. Wind speeds will be capped at 10kt and tend to stay SWrly with some variability at times. Swell energy has abated and the wind waves will obviously be minimal for seas that will settle to 2 ft. Sunday Night through Thursday... The typical synoptic summer pattern will be in place through the period for the marine community. Winds will be from the south/southwest in a range of 10-15 knots with significant seas of 2-4 feet. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MBB MARINE...SHK/MBB