Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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627 FXUS62 KILM 252337 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 737 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend. Two cold fronts will move into the region on Thursday and Monday bringing increased chances of thunderstorms. Hot temperatures will cool back to normal early next week. && .UPDATE... Minimal changes were needed with this evening`s update, primarily focusing in the near term on adjusting hourly temperatures where convection across South Carolina has occurred this afternoon. Lingering showers over land should dissipate over the next two hours with dry conditions expected overnight. I`ve increased the mention of fog in the forecast after midnight as light winds, mainly clear skies, and this very humid airmass combine. Inland areas near I-95 will likely see the more widespread fog and low clouds at sunrise, but the latest GFS lamp guidance shows potential extending as far east as Wilmington and North Myrtle Beach too. Fog and stratus cloud tops should remain shallow and will burn off quickly Wednesday morning with no impact on Wednesday`s temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As a surface front washed out today, the onshore flow this morning was enhanced by outflow from offshore convection. The low-level moisture and outflow have provided more cloud cover than anticipated. Isolated convection has just formed in the past hour in southern Georgetown. The convection is expected to remain isolated through the evening. Overnight, isolated fog is possible toward sunrise. Wednesday will be another hot day, with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s inland and lower 90s at the coast. The heat indices will again reach into the lower 100s on Wednesday afternoon and will be close to heat advisory conditions. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Hot and humid conditions continue, with low temps in the mid 70s and forecasted highs Thursday afternoon in the upper 90s (away from the coast). Increased variability in the afternoon temps is likely as lingering front inland, sea breeze, and an upper shortwave passage combine to bring scattered convection to the area into the evening hours Thursday. No severe weather concerns at this time given minimal shear - however slow storm motions (less than 10 kts) could lead to isolated pockets of heavy rain accumulations. Depending on cloud and storm coverage, most areas will likely see heat indices in the triple digits Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Extended period of above normal temperatures and elevated humidity will continue through Sunday, with heat advisories possible each day (heat indices >=105F). Diurnal storms possible Friday and Saturday with afternoon sea breeze and Piedmont trough, although weak upper ridge nearby and some dry air aloft will limit coverage both days. An upper trough passing well to the north Sunday will weaken the ridge, with guidance showing PWATs increasing to over 2" Sunday into Sunday night. Typical daytime convection Sunday with continued chances into Monday as a cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Temperatures may drop to near normal for early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A very humid airmass remains in place across the Carolinas with light onshore winds extending vertically through 4000 feet AGL. Satellite and surface observations indicate shallow stratocumulus streaming onshore which should show up as a scattered 1500-2000 foot cloud deck at KMYR, KCRE, and KILM now through 03z. There`s a moderate potential this could become a ceiling at KCRE over the next few hours. Bigger issues are expected late tonight as there is a moderate to high potential for fog and low stratus develop after 07-08z at all local airports except for KMYR. IFR conditions are expected inland and have at least a moderate potential of occurring at KCRE and KILM as well. Fog should burn out between 11-13z with VFR conditions expected throughout the day on Wednesday. Extended Outlook...VFR should prevail outside of periodic MVFR/IFR during diurnal showers/thunderstorms plus spotty morning low clouds/fog. Thursday afternoon and evening has the highest potential for convection affecting local airports. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday...Over the next 24 hours, we can expect a shift in wind direction as high pressure attempts to build back west over the coast waters. The northeast winds this afternoon will gradually veer to the south by Wednesday. Wind speeds will maintain a steady 10 knots overnight but will pick up to 10 to 13 knots by Wednesday afternoon. As for the seas, we anticipate a slow subsiding from 3 to 4 feet to 3 feet by Wednesday. Wednesday Night through Saturday...Southerly flow around Bermuda high dominates the coastal waters Wednesday night into the weekend, with brief backing to southeasterly Saturday. Wind speeds 10-15 kts Wednesday night and Thursday, with gusts around 20 kts Wed night, lower to around 10 kts Friday and Saturday. Seas around 3 ft Wed night and Thursday lowers to 2-3 ft Friday into the weekend, mix of S wind wave and a 2-3 ft 9 sec SE swell. Best chance for thunderstorms over the coastal waters will come Thursday evening into overnight hours as an upper level trough moves across the area, with widely scattered overnight convection every other night. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...TRA NEAR TERM...RH SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...TRA MARINE...VAO/RH