Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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618 FXUS61 KILN 281357 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 957 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off to the east today. Southerly flow around the departing high will bring warmer, more humid air back into the region. Deeper moisture is forecast to interact with embedded mid level disturbances tonight and Saturday, increasing the chance of showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will then move southeast through the area Saturday night into Sunday. This front will be followed by high pressure for the beginning of the new week. Temperatures will cool down and humidity levels will drop with the Canadian airmass. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... High pressure will gradually retreat eastward today. Winds will shift towards the south-southeast, ushering in a slightly warmer air mass today. Clouds will continue to spill in from the west ahead of the next system, but conditions will remain dry through the daylight hours. Highs will climb into the middle 80s to lower 90s. With dewpoints creeping slightly higher today into the upper 60s to near 70, locations along/south of the OH River will observe heat indices near the middle to upper 90s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Embedded mid level disturbances, some perhaps convectively induced, will affect our forecast area tonight into Saturday. These features will interact with deeper moisture (pwats 2+ inches) along with a low level jet to produce showers and thunderstorms. For tonight, showers and storms will be most numerous along and north of I-70 where the low level convergence will be focused. Chances will decrease south of there as one moves south of the Ohio River. Some locally heavy rain will be possible in the northern locations. Given the increase in clouds, southerly wind, and increasing dewpoints, overnight lows will only fall into the lower to mid 70s. On Saturday, the potential exists for some strong to severe storms to occur in the afternoon and evening. Some of this will dependent on how morning convection/clouds linger into the afternoon before redevelopment takes place. CAMs suggest that main redevelopment will be more focused over our eastern locations where a mid level disturbance will interact with perhaps a prefrontal low level trof axis to produce scattered to numerous showers/storms. Moderate CAPE (dewpoints in the mid 70s, temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90) along with moderate deep layered shear will be conducive for sustained storm structure. Damaging winds appear to be the main severe weather threat as mid level lapse rates will be poor for large hail. Also, SPC HREF indicates some rotating storms will be possible, which also keeps an isolated risk of tornadoes possible. And as stated, the moist airmass will result in locally heavy rainfall. Heat indices in the southern half of the CWFA may approach 100 degrees Saturday afternoon, but confidence is still somewhat uncertain, being dependent on how much sunshine can occur during the day. For Saturday night, prefrontal convection will move off to the east while the main cold front pushes southeast across the forecast area. Forcing with the front itself doesn`t look impressive and stronger lift will be positioned farther north in Canada. Nonetheless, will have to maintain a chance of showers/storms until frontal passage. Lows will range from the mid 60s northwest to the lower 70s southeast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... After a cold front and isolated showers and thunderstorms move east early Sunday, high pressure settling slowly over the Great Lakes is forecast to provide dry weather Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. A boundary dropping from the northwest will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the period. Due to the slow moving character of the boundary, and the likelihood for deep moisture advection along the boundary, heavy rain will be possible. Temperatures start relatively cool, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s expected on Sunday and in the mid 70s to low 80s Monday. Warm advection on the return flow around the high will boost readings to the mid and upper 80s to low 90s Tuesday and Wednesday. Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms along with cloud cover may limit highs to the mid and upper 80s on Thursday. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The center of surface high pressure across the eastern Great Lakes this morning will move off the New England coast by this evening. For today, low level flow will veer to a southerly direction. Some late day cumulus clouds may form near the Ohio River, otherwise, SCT to LCL BKN mid and high level clouds can be expected. Winds will be from the south around 10 knots. For tonight, embedded mid level disturbances in a west/southwest flow aloft will interact with increasing deep moisture and a low level jet. This will first bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening. Then, by late tonight, showers and embedded thunderstorms will become more prevalent, mainly along and north of I-70 (KDAY to KCMH/KLCK) where the low level convergence will be more focused. MVFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibilities will be possible in thunderstorms. South winds near 10 knots will gust up to 20 knots at times overnight. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday into Saturday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Clark SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hickman