049
FXUS63 KIWX 290656
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
256 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms are possible again today, mainly east of
  Highway 31. Severe weather is not expected but isolated small
  hail may be possible.

- Dry and pleasant weather is expected Thursday and Friday but
  more rain returns Saturday.

- Highs around 70 will slowly climb into the 80s by early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Yet another robust midlevel vort max noted on morning water
vapor imagery spinning over our CWA. This feature and the
associated low level convergence is maintaining some light-
moderate rain across the area that will pinwheel south through
the early morning as the primary wave dives southeast. Moist
cyclonic flow will continue through much of the day though and
in concert with cool temps aloft/modest instability will support
another round of showers and isolated storms this afternoon.
The best chances will be in our eastern half. Weak shear and low
instability will preclude severe storms but once again can`t
entirely rule out some small hail in any robust cores that
manage to develop given cold temps aloft. This activity is
expected to taper off quickly this evening with the loss of
daytime heating and lack of any appreciable forcing. Anticipate
dry conditions everywhere by 03Z. Northerly flow/weak CAA and a
fair amount of clouds will yield highs a few degrees cooler than
yesterday...likely struggling to reach into the 70s. Lows
tonight will drop into the mid/upper 40s given light N/NE winds
and clearing skies.

One more shortwave trough swings through the lower Lakes on Thu but
largely misses our CWA to the NE. Dry air advection pushes surface
dewpoints into the 30s and the much more stable environment will
prevent any precip, even clouds will be sparse. Nearly full sun is
expected and highs should climb back into the low/mid 70s. Overall a
very beautiful day. This will continue into Fri with even warmer
temps (mid/upper 70s) as low level winds become more southerly.

00Z models continue to trend slower with the next weak trough
ejecting out of the southwest CONUS, now slated to arrive late Sat.
More favorable diurnal timing raises the chances for convection and
heavier/more widespread rain but severe chances still appear very
low given lackluster moisture return and overall weak instability
due to warmer temps aloft. Dry conditions are currently expected on
Sun and possibly into Mon but forecast confidence decreases
substantially during this period given lack of any large-scale
features to latch onto. Do expect slowly increasing temperatures
through early next week though given more zonal flow and broad
ridging at times.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 201 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Predominantly MVFR to VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites
this period. The only exception will be this morning where we
have some IFR ceilings/visibilities associated with the cold
front. Expect we could see some 700 ft ceilings (as there are
upstream) and visibilities around 2-3 miles at times. Once the
front passes, expect improvement to VFR (11/12z KSBN, then more
like 15z at KFWA).

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...MCD