![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
022 FXUS63 KIWX 260125 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 925 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Uncertainties with storm redevelopment tonight. The threat for additional severe weather appears minimal. Better chances of showers and thunderstorms may hold off until late tonight or Wednesday morning. - Hot weather not expected through the weekend. High will be mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s. - Next system is expected to bring chances for rain & storms late Friday into early Saturday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 914 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Stable bubble and low level CIN persists across much of the area this evening due to effects earlier convection. Main area of thunderstorm development this evening has been in the vicinity of very strong instability axis draped from southwest Iowa into west central Illinois into southeast Wisconsin. Hi res guidance trends over past few hours have backed off on extent of convection through the early overnight locally. This trend appears reasonable as lagging upper forcing back to the west will likely provide little opportunity to overcome MLCIN limitations locally. By late tonight, more substantial upper trough should approach the western Great Lakes allowing weak low level convergence axis to shift across eastern IL/northwest IN. This should allow for weakening of stronger mid level lapse rates which are aiding in capped conditions this evening. While this may be supportive of more showers and thunderstorms, instability magnitudes should be tempered as a result. Have updated grids to reduce PoPs this evening into the early overnight, but an additional decrease may be needed given current trends. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The initial round of storms has moved south along the outflow boundary where convection was becoming more scattered. Large CAPE values were indicated by SPC mesoanalysis from around 4000 to 5000 J/Kg south of the boundary from east central IL to west central IN. Massive hail cores were indicated in this area with 70 dBz to over 30K feet per radar. West of the forecast area over nrn IL and far southern WI, an EML was helping to produce extremely large CAPEs in a long band of >6000 J/Kg and a core over 6500 J/kg per SPC. Capping at the base of the EML should hold storms in check until late this afternoon and this evening per HRRR. Have reduced storm coverage over the forecast area into early this evening given the above reasoning. It still looks like a more marginal storm threat tonight, although locally heavy rainfall is possible along with possible subsequent flooding of mainly urban area. Otherwise, a break in the stormy weather is expected until late Friday when a pair of upper level systems are forecast to reach the area per GFS. BUFKIT soundings given a strong signal for the potential for heavy rain with precipitable. water values over 2.0 inches. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 746 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The cap has broken at the base of the EML to the west. Rather explosive storm growth has been occurring where substantial CAPEs were still over 4000 J/Kg. However, massive stabilization farther east was making it difficult for storms to move east. It looks like some upper level support later tonight will allow storms to eventually reach the area and FWA and SBN terminals. Have updated TAFs in this regard with a later arrival time. There is still low confidence in this timing and further updates are likely to be needed. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Marsili DISCUSSION...Skipper AVIATION...Skipper