Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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234 FXUS64 KJAN 252039 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 339 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Tonight and Wednesday: Afternoon surface analysis had a high centered northeast of our CWA and a slightly stronger high centered over the central Gulf coast. As the high to our northeast continues shifting farther to the northeast we will come more under the influence of the surface high to our south. This will help maintain high humidity over our CWA through Wednesday. Temperatures have climbed into the upper 90s this afternoon. This has led to Excessive Heat Warning criteria over our delta and Heat Advisory criteria over the remainder of our CWA. These oppressive conditions will linger into the evening before gradually diminishing. Visible satellite imagery shows a rather suppressed cu field across our CWA and the potential for microbursts look to remain limited. The large upper level ridge that has led to the recent heat wave across our CWA has shifted west and mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a shortwave trough over the central Plains that will drop around the high and over our CWA Wednesday. This is expected to lead to a greater coverage of convection over our CWA that will lower the heat stress. The timing of the convection is in question with the most likely time during prime heating but several models suggest an MCS development that moves into our CWA during the morning hours. Later convection would limit heating so peak heat index values would be limited to 105F or less. A later onset of convection would allow for greater heating and a possible Heat Advisory for portions of the CWA. In addition, the environmental parameters look adequate for damaging wind gusts with the storms. An MCS would bring a broader area of damaging winds. For now, isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail to the size of quarters during the afternoon into the evening, as far south as the Highway 84 corridor look possible. /22/ Wednesday Night through Friday.... Shower and thunderstorm potential will continue as a cold front continues to moves through northern portions of the ArkLaMiss region Wednesday night. With a slightly unstable airmass (bulk shear around 20-30 kts and dewpoints in lower/mid 70s), a "Marginal" risk for severe weather will continue for areas north of I-20. Damaging winds/hail up to quarter-size are the primary hazards of concern. As the frontal boundary shifts southward Thursday, showers/thunderstorms will be possible with best rain chances near the I-20 and I-59 corridor. A few strong thunderstorms can`t be ruled out and organized convection is not expected. along/south of the boundary. Post-frontal passage, a less oppressive hot/humid airmass will filter in and bring slight relief to the hot temperatures. Expect post frontal high temperature in the upper 80s/lower 90s and low temperatures in the lower 70s. Saturday through Monday.... The relief from hot temperatures will be short-lived as an upper-lvl high amplifies over TX and an upper-lvl ridge builds over the southeast. As a result, oppressive heat and humidity will return to the area Saturday and continues through the weekend. As the weekend progresses and into next week, the aforementioned high pressure center is expected to migrate eastward, bringing a hot airmass into the area and increasing heat stress and danger across the CWA. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid/upper 90s and heat indices reach 105-110F degrees. With heat indices in the 105-110F degree range, an "Elevated" heat threat HWO graphic was introduced for Saturday through Monday. Heat related warnings and advisories may be needed as the weekend gets closer but will hold off for now. Take precautions to prevent heat-related illnesses and stay hydrated. A frontal boundary is expected to push towards the southeast, increasing shower/thunderstorm potential Sunday afternoon and Monday. Severe weather is not anticipated but will continue to monitor as the forecast progresses. /SW/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 103 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Isold TSRA may come in vcty of HEZ this aftn but elsewhere the chance for any TAF site experiencing a TSRA is too low to mention in the TAF. VFR conditions and a light wind are expected to prevail areawide through the end of the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 77 94 73 90 / 50 50 50 70 Meridian 75 96 72 91 / 10 60 60 70 Vicksburg 77 94 73 90 / 10 30 40 40 Hattiesburg 77 95 74 92 / 30 70 40 80 Natchez 75 93 73 89 / 10 30 40 60 Greenville 78 96 72 92 / 10 40 40 20 Greenwood 78 95 72 91 / 10 60 50 30 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018- 019-025>027-034>036-040>042-047. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ028>033-037>039- 043>046-048>066-072>074. LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ023>026. AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074- 075. && $$ 22/SW/22