812
FXUS64 KJAN 201140 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
640 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Today and Tonight: The near term forecast is one of persistence as
ridging surface and aloft will remain dominant through tonight. This
will help result in dry weather and warmer than normal temperatures.
Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed our CWA on the
eastern periphery of a 591dam high centered over Texas and Mexico.
This high will change very little through tonight and maintain a dry
northerly flow aloft over our CWA. Early morning surface analysis
still had a weak 1014mb surface ridge oriented northeast-southwest
across our CWA. This surface ridge will remain in place and weaken
slightly through tonight as well. This will result in a very light
low level flow across our CWA and continue to limit the return of
Gulf moisture. Together these features will help temperatures top
out warmer than normal again this afternoon; in the lower 90s.
Saturday morning lows will be in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees
again. /22/

Saturday through next Thursday...High pressure, both at the surface
and aloft, will reside across the forecast area through the weekend
and into early next next.  This`ll result in quiet weather across
the region during this timeframe. Humid conditions will persist with
dew points generally mixing into the upper 60s to around 70 each
day.  Highs Saturday through Monday will remain toasty and in the
low and middle 90s.  Lows through Monday night will range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Tuesday through Thursday, rain chances begin to return to the
forecast, particularly on Wednesday. A trough is currently
advertised to shift east into and through the region during this
time.  This scenario will cause a frontal boundary to likewise shift
east into and through the forecast area, bringing isolated to
scattered showers along with it Tuesday night through Wednesday
night. As the front clears the CWA Thursday, rain chances come to an
end, other than across far Southeast Mississippi, with some slightly
drier conditions returning to the forecast area.

Lastly, models continue to indicated the potential for tropical
development over the Western Caribbean/southern Gulf of Mexico late
next work week into early next weekend.  While models have been
consistent in this development, they`ve been quite inconsistent on a
run-to-run basis in terms of this potential system`s track and
timing due to both where the system will be when it develops and how
it`ll react to the passing of the aforementioned trough.  All of
this is still a week out. So please continue to pay close attention
to the most up-to-date forecast for the latest information
concerning this potential. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions and a light wind will prevail through the TAF
period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       92  70  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      93  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     93  69  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   94  70  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       92  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    92  69  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     93  71  95  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/19/22