Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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965 FXUS64 KJAN 161800 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Rest of today... GOES East water vapor/synoptic analysis indicate mid-level ridge centered over the Carolinas to Appalachians, with southerly return flow on the western periphery across the area. There is good coverage of deep moisture analyzed, with GOES East total PWs closer to 1.75 to 2 inches, expected to advect northward. Morning 12Z upper air analysis indicate a shortwave across the northern Gulf Coast expected to move northwestward through the aftn hours. Convective initiation has already occurred in the Pine Belt & will propagate northwestward through the day. Convective rates will be quick due to some light backbuilding flow, but limited support in HREF prob match mean probs > 3 inches lower confidence of flash flooding potential in the Pine Belt. Aftn heat & humidity remains on tap, with highs expected in the mid-upper 90s north of I-20 & more seasonable in the low 90s southeast of the Natchez Trace corridor. "Limited" heat graphic remains on track. Main adjustments were to bump up to slight chances of rain northwest of the Natchez Trace due to propagation in convective allowing models (CAMs). Otherwise, forecast is generally on track. A couple strong storms can`t be ruled out, especially any that orient orthogonal to the southeasterly low-level bulk shear, but limited vertical totals/lapse rates lower confidence & microburst potential remain on the lower side. Updates are already out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Today and tonight... Hot temperatures will persist today with heat indices around 105 still possible. However, temperatures should be somewhat capped due to increasing moisture advection into the area. Still, a limited graphic for heat stress is being messaged for today as well. Given this moisture, along with a wave pushing northward, scattered showers and storms will be possible this afternoon, especially for areas south of I-20. Showers and storms should gradually level off in coverage tonight, but remain persistent across southern areas. This leads us into a potentially very wet Monday as tropical moisture continues to stream into our area./SAS/ Monday and Tuesday: Rain chances will increase for the beginning of the work week as deep layer southerly flow draws tropical moisture northward across the area. For the time being, Monday looks to be the best day for rain chances with tropical showers and embedded storms spreading northward through much of the day. Rain coverage for Tuesday is less certain, as there are increasing signals that showers may be anchored closer to the Gulf Coast, but scattered showers will still be possible within the tropical airmass over our area. Even drier guidance solutions mostly keep a good deal of cloud cover around into Tuesday. While PWs approaching 2 in. suggest potential for locally heavy downpours, model guidance has trended decided lower with storm total rain amounts for our area, keeping potential for flooding more to our south and west. The upside to the increasing clouds and rain is we`ll get a brief break from the above normal heat, with highs remaining in the 80s to around 90 for many areas both Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday through Saturday: By Wednesday, the Southeast ridge will begin to build back into our area, with the tropical moisture plume shifting westward. Rain chances will trend back downward, with mostly dry conditions over the latter half of the work week. However, there will be a corresponding increase in temperatures with highs returning to the mid to upper 90s again by Friday and Saturday. Gulf moisture will gradually creep back northward into south MS and south LA by next weekend with mainly diurnal rain chances returning across southern zones. NHC continues to monitor potential for tropical development over the southwestern Gulf next week, but this activity is expected to track mainly westward and away from our region. /DL/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 With broad and continous moisture advection continuing into the CWA from the Gulf, being funneled by a stagnant surface high, we can expect to see generally southerly flow and widespread cumulus development throughout the area. A mid level inversion will continue to erode throughout the period and has eroded completely near the coast, allowing for scattered showers and thunderstorms. A trend of this general instability and moisture advection making its way inland will allow for broader showers and thunderstorms for central and southern portions of the CWA. VFR conditions are expected to persist, other than brief drops in visibility and ceilings in showers and thunderstorms. Wind speeds will increase in association with the aforementioned shifting subsidence inversion moving off. /OAJ/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 73 88 72 87 / 20 70 10 30 Meridian 72 90 71 89 / 30 60 10 20 Vicksburg 73 89 73 86 / 20 60 10 30 Hattiesburg 73 88 73 89 / 40 80 10 40 Natchez 72 86 71 84 / 30 80 20 40 Greenville 75 91 73 89 / 10 60 10 20 Greenwood 75 90 73 89 / 10 60 10 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/DL/OAJ