286
FXUS63 KJKL 032002
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
402 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a relative lull in precipitation lasting into Tuesday
  morning, the potential of showers and thunderstorms will
  increase at mid week.

- Somewhat cooler and drier weather will arrive behind a cold
  front which will pass on Thursday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 401 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2024

A few showers and thunderstorms are going on across eastern KY and
in neighboring CWAs with daytime heating/mixing. Given the lack of
forcing and shear, don`t expect these to have much impact, just a
quick pulse up and back down again.

These should quickly dissipate in the evening as we lose daytime
heating/mixing. From this point forward, the forecast gets a bit
more complicated. We should stay dry through much of the night
tonight, but clouds will be increasing from the west. Flow will
become more southerly as the upper level ridge and surface high
pressure exit to our east. An upper level shortwave will move into
the region by the afternoon, quickly enhancing pop coverage across
KY and points to our S and W. CAMs show pops starting in our SW and
then progressing eastward into the CWA as we get more into the peak
heating of the day. With the increased Srly flow, temperatures will
modify a bit warmer by tomorrow afternoon, with highs in the mid
80s.

These storms will dissipate again in the evening. However, it
appears as though the next system to impact the CWA will be right on
it`s heels. We will be lucky if we even get a few hour break in some
locations. By 0Z Wednesday, heights will continue decreasing, as an
upper level and surface low move across Southern Canada. From this
surface system, a cold front will descend southward through the
Upper Great Lakes, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and eventually into the
Southern Plains. This front will slowly shift eastward, finally
reaching western KY by 0Z Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will
have developed along the front and will have raced ahead of it,
especially where the better warm air/moisture/instability is -
beginning to impact eastern KY after midnight Wednesday, and
continuing to increase into Wednesday morning as we transition to
the extended period of the forecast.

Did keep with some valley fog for overnight tonight, along with a
minor ridge/valley temperature difference. Any lingering clouds
could impact the diurnal curve, but incoming clouds in the SW during
the second half of the overnight could also prevent these locations
from seeing temperatures drop quite as low. Didn`t include fog or as
much of a ridge/valley temperature difference for Tuesday night, as
clouds will continue to increase with precip possibly ongoing at
times. Lows both nights should generally be in the 60s, with the
cooler night being tonight (less clouds, light wind, less moisture),
and a few degrees warmer for Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 337 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2024

The extended is still expected to start off quite active, as a
strong weather system moves through the region Wednesday through
Thursday. The pattern aloft remains similar to previous model runs,
with a trough of low pressure still progged to move onshore in
southwestern Canada early Wednesday, with now slightly more
pronounced ridging in place along the west coast of the CONUS.
Further east, a strong trough aloft, with a cold front trailing
southward from it, will be pushing through the Great Lakes and into
New England through the end of the week. The trough will be slow to
move through, as it intensifies and slows down on its eastward trek.
The front trailing from this system will bring widespread showers
and storms to eastern Kentucky Wednesday and Wednesday night as it
moves pushes eastward through the region. The parent trough will
become our primary weather maker the rest of the week, as it moves
slowly through the Great Lakes and into New England. The models
continue to agree that this system will be in place over the eastern
third of the CONUS heading into the weekend. A shortwave trough will
then push southward out of the Great Lakes region on Sunday, on the
backside of the departing original upper trough, and will allow for
scattered showers and storms to finish out the weekend and into next
week. There will be a brief respite from the rain Thursday night
and Friday, as we will be between systems, although a few showers
and storms cannot be ruled out in our eastern counties as we get
brushed by the backside of a large departing trough.

The highest rain chances we see in the extended will be Wednesday
through Thursday, during the passage of a cold front. After that, we
will see several rounds of isolated to scattered showers and storms,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, as subsequent troughs
aloft traverse the region. Temperatures should be near normal each
day, with a few day at or slightly above normal, and others at or
slightly below normal. The cooler days will Friday and Saturday,
after the first large trough moves through. There is still a
marginal(5%) chance for excessive rainfall that could lead to
flooding Wednesday through Thursday. The good news is that the
likelihood of heavy rain and flooding is still not increasing as we
approach the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2024

Mainly VFR conditions are on tap for today, along with light winds.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible through the mid-
day in northeast KY and near the VA border, which could bring very
localized sub-VFR conditions. However, coverage and impacts are
not enough to warrant inclusion in the TAFs. Valley fog is also
forecast late tonight, but should mainly impact the valleys. Did
include some scattered low IFR decks as the fog begins to lift in
the morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions should remain in place
through the end of the forecast period. Mid and high clouds will
begin moving into the TAF sites during the day, ahead of rain
chances. These rain chances should hold off until 18Z and later,
so did not include in TAFs at this time.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW