867
FXUS62 KKEY 290803
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
403 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

It has been another quiet, humid night across the Florida Keys.
After the outflow boundary moved through yesterday evening, all
activity ceased within the forecast area. Over the past few hours,
winds have become east to southeast and increased as the ridge
axis that has been sitting across the area has begun to lift to
the north. This ESE flow has kept temperatures in the mid 80s and
dew points in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees overnight, leading
to a very muggy start to the day. Winds have been just high enough
overnight that even the interior locations of the larger islands
have not been able to radiate as they have been the past few
nights.

The ridge axis across our area will continue to lift northward
today. As the high lifts, the gradient between this feature and
the disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will tighten
briefly, causing an increase in winds by this afternoon. Easterly
flow will usher in enhanced moisture, but the main driver of
shower development will remain mesoscale processes. The steering
flow is also forecast to be from the east, which is not the most
favorable for convection drifting off the Mainland or Cuba towards
the island chain. With all of this in mind, have decided to nudge
rain chances down to 30% for today.

Looking at Sunday, a more favorable environment for shower and
thunderstorm development is expected. Model guidance highlight a
weak inverted trough that has riding along in the easterlies
nearing the east coast of Florida, with deep tropical moisture
accompanying it. This feature will traverse across the Peninsula
through Monday morning, however, the associated moisture will
remain across the Keys through Monday evening. Have kept above
normal rain chances Sunday through Monday (50%). Tuesday through
Wednesday will feature a more normal summertime regime, with the
high in the North Atlantic maintaining east to southeast moist
flow streaming across the forecast area.

By the latter half of the week, the details of the forecast become
a little more murky. Newly formed Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast
to skirt south of Cuba and while no direct impacts are expected
for the Florida Keys at this time, our forecast could vary greatly
depending on the exact track of this storm. The proximity of TS
Beryl to the Florida Keys will determine how much of an increase
in winds we see starting Wednesday night through the start of the
weekend. It will also determine the extent of moisture that
reaches our area and the exact environment across the region.
Thereafter, another disturbance (currently located in the eastern
tropical Atlantic) is forecast to follow a similar track to TS
Beryl, which would lead to the same forecast uncertainties as the
ones mentioned in regards to TS Beryl. Decided to continue to
hedge towards climatology for rain chances, but have maintained
the elevated winds starting on Wednesday night. We will continue
to closely monitor both of these systems, and update the forecast
as necessary when the details become more clear. Stay tuned and
stay updated at hurricanes.gov.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 403 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the
Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, breezes will freshen
during the day today as the gradient between a disturbance in the
southwestern Gulf and a North Atlantic ridge tightens briefly. As
the disturbance moves westward into Central America, the gradient
will relax, resulting in gentle to moderate east to southeast
breezes through Wednesday. Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to
move south of Cuba starting Wednesday night. Breezes across the
Florida Keys will freshen as the system transits westward well
south of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 403 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR conditions will persist at EYW and MTH for the TAF period.
Near surface winds will briefly increase during daylight hours to
a peak speed just below 15 knots. Expect a drop in near-surface
winds to single digits following sunset. Average moisture across
the island terminals will steadily increase during the TAF period,
but the timing and placement of shower remains very uncertain.
The greatest likelihood of showers would be between late morning
and early afternoon, just as near-surface winds strengthen.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...NB
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP

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