893
FXUS63 KLBF 251120
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
620 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will persist through Sunday. Highs
  are forecast to reach the lower to mid 90s Thursday across
  the eastern panhandle and Cherry County. A near record high is
  possible for Valentine.

- No threat for precipitation over the next 7 days.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions Thursday
  afternoon.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

A strong upper level ridge was located across the western U.S. An
upper trough from Hudson Bay Canada extended south through the Great
Lakes into the southern Mississippi Valley with a closed low
centered over eastern Missouri. Also of note, tropical storm Helene
was located west of Cozumel Mexico.

At the surface, weak high pressure was centered from the Texas
panhandle northward across Nebraska. Clear skies were present across
the region. Temperatures at 3 AM CDT, ranged from 50 degrees at
Ainsworth and O`Neill to 44 degrees at North Platte.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

The forecast concerns in the short term are the above normal
temperatures and fire weather.

The upper ridge will remain centered today over Colorado and New
Mexico with a ridge axis extending north through the Dakotas all the
way north across Saskatchewan and Manitoba Canada. Meanwhile an
upper trough will extend across the Pacific Northwest. This will
direct very warm air over the Rockies into the Northern and Central
High Plains. 850MB temperature anomalies across 5 to 10 celsius
above normal across the northwestern half of the forecast area. Went
warmer for highs today, using the NBM 75th percentile, from the mid
to upper 80s from the western Sandhills into north central Nebraska
to the low 80s southeastern zones. Wind will be light and variable
this morning, then become south at 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight, a surface trough will remain from eastern Montana through
eastern Colorado. This will keep winds south from 5 to 10 mph,
except gusting to 15 mph across the northwest Sandhills. This will
keep lows from 3 to 8 degrees above normal, from the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Went below the latest NBM for lows, to include a blend of
the MET and MAV guidance.

On Thursday, the ridge axis aloft will become positively tilted,
extending from New Mexico, northeast into the western Great Lakes.
This is a result of an upper trough moving through Montana and
Wyoming. This will push a surface trough into northwestern Nebraska.
The very warm air aloft will migrate eastward from the front range
of Colorado and Wyoming into western Nebraska. The latest NBM, the
basis for highs, has trended a few degrees warmer. Highs from 90 to
95 are forecast across the eastern panhandle into Cherry County with
mid to upper 80s across the remainder of the area. The latest MAV
statistical guidance has 95 for a high at VTN Thursday which would
tie the record high for Sept. 26th. The forecast high is 93.
The ECMWF extreme forecast index and shift of tails from this
morning highlights the panhandle and northwest Sandhills in a threat
for abnormally warm Thursday. Across the northwest Sandhills where
the warmest temperatures reside, a surface trough will lead to
lighter southwest winds. Further east, a surface pressure gradient
will exist with southerly winds 10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph
across north central Nebraska.  The northwest Sandhills should reach
a minimum humidity near 15 percent. However, with light winds, we
should avoid critical fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon.
Further east, we will see some 25 mph wind gusts in the Valentine
area, however low level moisture, should be sufficient enough to
forgo fire headlines. In summary, near critical fire weather
conditions across the northwest Sandhills, with elevated fire
weather conditions elsewhere. Grass fuels are cured and ready to
burn, so any fires that start may spread.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

For Friday through Sunday, the upper level ridge will persist over
the region. This will keep highs around 15 degrees above normal,
mostly in the upper 80s. A cold front is forecast to move in Sunday
night, cooling highs back into the 70s for Monday. A strong signal
for windy conditions Monday(northerly 15 to 30 mph). An upper trough
shown by the GFS and ECMWF will drop into the Great Lakes region by
Tuesday, bringing fairly strong Canadian surface high pressure near
1030mb in Monday night. Highs now trended cooler for Tuesday from 65
to around 70. As for the threat for frost, the NBM ensembles are
indicating a 25 to 50 percent probability for lows below 36 degrees
across the northwest Sandhills Monday night. Will need to follow
model trends for this in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VFR conditions continue over the next 24 hours. Winds will be
light and variable this morning across much of the forecast
area, with the exception of the northern Sandhills, including
KVTN terminal. Across the northern Sandhills winds will be light
out of the southwest, around 5 kts this morning, then winds
switch to the southeast in the afternoon near 10 kts across the
northern Sandhills. Across the rest of the forecast area winds
will also shift to the southeast in the afternoon, but remain
around 5 kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Gomez