376
FXUS63 KLBF 280915
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
415 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms across most of
  western and north central Nebraska. The main severe concerns
  will be significant hail and damaging winds.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms remain through mid week.

- Fluctuating temperatures through the end of the week, with
  Monday expected to the the hottest day.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Upper air analysis and satellite imagery show an upper level low
over north central Montana embedded in a trough over the
northwestern United States. Westerly flow aloft is observed over the
state of Nebraska. At the surface, low pressure systems are observed
over South Dakota, with a cold front pushing across western
Nebraska. Satellite and radar show a small batch of showers and
thunderstorms over northeast Colorado, moving towards southwest
Nebraska.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Ample moisture remains behind the passing cold front, with overnight
dewpoints remaining in the upper 50s to low 60s behind the cold
front. Daytime heating will allow for marginal CAPE to develop, and
upper level flow will set up generally long, straight hodographs.
Low to mid level lapse rates this afternoon will be supportive of
convection developing over eastern portions of Wyoming and Colorado,
with storms eventually tracking east. As storms track into Nebraska,
they will encounter an environment of marginal CAPE, low CIN, and
mostly unidirectional shear. The environment will favor discrete
cells, with the main threats being large hail and damaging winds.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed a Slight Risk across most of
the state of Nebraska, with a Marginal Risk running along portions
of northern Nebraska. Of highest concern, will be areas in the
Sandhills, western Nebraska, and southwest Nebraska, where SPC is
concerned about significant hail greater than 2 inches and damaging
wind gusts in excess of 70 miles per hour. Overnight CAM guidance
continues to produce strong, isolated cells capable of producing
hail and damaging winds this afternoon into the evening. The main
forecast question will be whether forcing for storms is sufficient
to produce organized convection.

Storms may continue to linger through Saturday morning, before
moving out of the area. Behind the low pressure system, temperatures
remain more on the mild side Saturday, generally in the 70s across
the region. Saturday also looks to be a quiet period in terms of
precipitation, with no additional rain expected after showers and
storms move out in the morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

A fairly progressive upper level pattern keeps precipitation chances
around through mid week. Upper level ridging moves over the region
on Sunday, with a weak upper level disturbance tracking through the
flow. This brings slight chances of precipitation across the
Panhandle and north central Nebraska on Sunday, with the rest of the
region mostly remaining dry. This sets the stage for climbing
temperatures on Monday, particularly across southwest Nebraska,
where temperatures may climb into the upper 90s to lower 100s. In
addition to the heat, an upper level trough sets up to the west on
Monday, bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms across
the region.

The upper level trough is expected to stall out over the western
United States, with a series of embedded shortwaves passing through
the flow. This will contribute to precipitation chances remaining
through at least mid week, before the trough eventually begins to
track east. Fluctuating temperatures continue through the week.
Interestingly, there is quite a significant spread in guidance on
temperatures near the end of the week. Current NBM guidance shows a
double digit spread in temperature values between the 25th and 75th
percentiles. As the models gain better traction on the series of
systems, that spread should decrease, and provide more reliable
temperature guidance as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Winds will be breezy through early mid morning with wind gust up
to 25 kts, winds will then switch to the northwest overnight
around 5 to 10 kts with gust up to 25 kts. There will be
thunderstorm chances in the afternoon and evening with the
greatest potential for thunderstorms across southwest Nebraska
into the southern and central Sandhills, including KLBF
terminal. There is more uncertainty with thunderstorms across
northern Nebraska. Thunderstorms are expected to be out of the
forecast area near midnight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Richie
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Gomez