816
FXUS64 KLIX 182105
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
405 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Current radar shows scattered showers across the CWA with a wide
swath of light to moderate rain west of the local area. These
showers are moving relatively quickly at around 20kts towards the
west due to strong onshore flow north of Potential Tropical Cyclone
One. This system is located northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula and
slowly drifting northwestward. While this storm system is not
forecast to directly affect the central Gulf Coast, continued
easterly moisture advection will mean scattered afternoon showers
will remain a risk through the evening hours. The CWA should see
rain ending earlier in coastal Mississippi than it will closer to
Baton Rouge due to drier air aloft moving in from the east. High
PWATs (near 95th percentile for this date) mean that any passing
showers will produce efficient rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr, though
rainfall totals from these will be around an inch or 2 due to the
forward motion. Once we lose diurnal heating this evening, should
see a quick dropoff in activity.

Another lower end impact from PTC One will be elevated winds. These
winds may be in excess of 20 mph in coastal areas because of the
strong nearly zonal pressure gradient, so coastal flooding will
continue to be a minor concern. The current coastal flood advisory
was expanded to include areas around the tidal lakes based on
current obs which show a 1 to 2 foot increase in lake levels today.
Have held off on a wind advisory for now but will possibly need one
for the southshore of Lake Pontchartrain at some point. Low
temperatures will remain above the climatological normal for mid
June due to the high moisture and remaining cloud cover.

A strengthening upper ridge, possibly reaching 600dm (that`s really
really high), centered over the Mid Atlantic will nose westward
through the southeastern CONUS into tomorrow. This will cause PTC
One to track west into northern Mexico, therefore removing some
moisture content in our CWA. This will reduce POPs going into
tomorrow, but because of how broad the system is and with PWATs at
an impressive, though reduced, 2" on average regionwide, scattered
showers with efficient rainfall rates will remain in the forecast,
though these should also be quick moving. High temperatures will
begin to increase closer to normal tomorrow with decreased rainfall
and cloud coverage along with the ridge starting to nudge into our
CWA.

MEFFER/DOLCE
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Warmer and generally drier conditions expected as we end this week
and head into the weekend as the ridge continues to build west.
Subsidence from the ridge will continue decreasing POPs through the
weekend. Highs will reach the mid 90s by Friday, potentially upper
90s for inland areas this weekend. Heat indices will breach 100
degrees by Friday and 105 degrees by Sunday areawide. Heat
advisories may be needed if these trend a little higher. Afternoon
sea breeze showers will remain a possibility through this period,
primarily in coastal areas, which could bring temporary relief in
spots. There is a chance another tropical disturbance tries to
develop in the Bay of Campeche next week, though details are murky
and no disturbance has formed yet. We`ll keep an eye on it, though
nothing to worry about for now.

MEFFER/DOLCE
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Terminal conditions vary across the spectrum with most at VFR, but
RA and TS driving some lowered ceilings to MVFR or spotty/occasional
IFR. Rain should be clearing by late evening into overnight hours
leaving predominantly VFR, but could see isolated MVFR or IFR toward
sunrise.

Coastal terminals could see wind gusts to 25 to 30 knots during the
afternoon hours today, before relaxing a bit around sunset. A more
general increase in wind speeds is expected on Wednesday morning as
the pressure gradient tightens somewhat.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Elevated winds persist across the marine areas in response to PTC
One centered in the Bay of Campeche. Recent obs in the open Gulf
waters support a Gale warning, so one was issued. Hazardous
conditions are expected over much of the open waters for the next
several days, however, and Advisories may need to be extended
beyond the current expiration over some or most of the waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  89  71  91 /  10  30   0  10
BTR  76  92  76  94 /  20  40   0  30
ASD  76  90  75  91 /  10  60  20  50
MSY  81  89  80  89 /  20  60  20  60
GPT  76  89  76  91 /  20  50  30  40
PQL  75  92  74  93 /  10  40  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ068.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ058-060-
     066>070-076>078-080-082-084-086-087.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557.

     Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ570-572-575.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557.

     Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ572-575.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFER/DOLCE
LONG TERM....MEFFER/DOLCE
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...RW/MEFFER