183
FXUS65 KLKN 212120
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
220 PM PDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry with warmer than average temperatures thru early
next week with the typical afternoon breezes also present. Slight
increase in probability of precipitation for eastern Nevada
Wednesday though accumulating rain is not expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night.

Any virga or dry thunderstorms present across the forecast area
this evening will dissipate moving into the overnight with dry and
fair weather present tonight. Overnight low temperatures look to
be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Trof weakens Saturday with energy continuing east out of the
region as high pressure concurrently increases over the four
corners region. This will leave weak zonal flow across the
forecast area Saturday morning with flow turning southwesterly by
Saturday night. Weather will be dry with noticeably warmer
temperatures and many locations will warm an additional 4-8
degrees compared to Friday with afternoon highs in the upper 80s
to upper 90s, with a few readings near 100 in some of the lower
elevation valleys such as Winnemucca and Battle Mountain. The
typical afternoon breezes will also be present with gusts
generally around 20 mph. Fair weather and light winds are expected
Saturday night with overnight low temperatures in the upper 40s
to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday.

Troughing well to the north in British Columbia, as well as a
subtropical high over the four corners region will keep Nevada
under dry conditions and southerly flow, with above normal
condtions in the mid 90s though next week. Lows at night will
range in the upper 50s except for the West Wendover areas in
Southeastern Elko county, where lows will only get into the low to
mid 70s Sunday through Thursday. This will created an elevated
week of heat risk to those sensitive to hot weather.

Wednesday, increased PoPs across eastern Nevada and along the
Utah boarder indicates an increased likelihood of cumulus build-
ups during the afternoon. These may result in gusty or erratic
winds. The Probability of precip remains less than 10% so weather
has not been added to the grids.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions
through this afternoon. Winds will be light of the W to SW at 5KT
to 15KT with gusts to 25KT across northern and central Nevada.
There is a low 10% chance of an isolated dry thunderstorm or two
that will exist with gusty outflow winds and a few lightning
strikes being the main hazards. Probabilities remain to low at
this time to mention VCTS in the TAFs, but it could be included in
later TAF updates should confidence warrant. VFR condtions
continue Saturday with west to southwest flow over the region.
Winds could become gusty in the afternoon with gusts as highs as
20KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Any virga or dry thunderstorms present across the
forecast area this evening will dissipate moving into the
overnight. For tomorrow and thru early next week, temperatures
will be hot and weather dry with temps residing much warmer than
average. The typical afternoon breezes will also be present with
gusts generally residing in the 20 to 25 mph range. Afternoon RH
values will be less than 15% and elevated fire weather risk will
be of concern with all things considered.

&&

HYDROLOGY...Temperatures trend warmer the rest of the week, with
well above normal temperatures continuing into next week. Rises on
some area streams and creeks coming off higher terrain are
expected late this week, but for now not expecting any new
flooding as the snowpack is greatly diminished.

The mainstem Humboldt River near Comus dropped below action stage
today and is expected to remain below action stage in the coming
days.

Wildhorse Reservoir water level remains elevated from the spring
snowmelt.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

$$

92/91/91/92/91