806
FXUS65 KLKN 230850
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
150 AM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Fair weather continues into the work week across the
Silver State. Ridging and a high pressure center building into the
west coast keep a lid on shower and thunderstorm activity as the
atmosphere remains very stable and dry. Temperatures will slowly
climb by a degree or two each day into the upper 80s by mid week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...The ridge continues to build into the SW CONUS on
Monday. A dome of high pressure building over the Pacific Ocean
under a well amplified ridge pattern will come onshore Monday
evening over the Pacific NW. This places the region in the
southeastern flank of the high creating ENE flow over the area. By
Tuesday the HPC will pass through the northern portions of the
state before pushing to the east and creating stronger southerly
flow across Nevada.

The synoptic setup is not favorable for moisture availability over
the CWA so convective activity is not expected through Wednesday
morning. Daytime highs on Monday in the upper 70s will continue to
increase for 2-3 degrees each day. Overnight lows along ridge tops
in the low 30s will create areas of frost, though valleys with
lows in the low 40s should avoid freezing through Wednesday
morning.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday.

Forecast area resides under southwesterly flow Wednesday morning
as high pressure is displaced east while a progressive upper trof
and attendant cold front move into the PacNW. Southwesterly
breezes will be across the Great Basin Wednesday afternoon with
gusts 20 to 25 mph expected, slightly stronger for some locales.
Otherwise weather remains dry under mostly sunny and clear skies.
Look for daytime high temperatures in the upper 70s to upper 80s
with overnight lows mostly in the 40s.

Trof continues east Thursday with the cold front skirting
northern Nevada. Upper flow transitions to a weak zonal regime by
the afternoon and evening hours. No significant change in sensible
weather anticipated with dry conditions prevailing and winds
becoming generally light Thursday, remaining so thru the latter
half of the week. Temperatures also cool slightly Thursday but
remain a few degrees warmer than average thru at least Saturday.
Numerical solutions continue to indicate another upper trof to
move into the PacNW from the west in the Sunday time frame. Slight
variation in the timing of the trof with larger discrepancy in
its strength lead to high uncertainty in the forecast Sunday and
Monday. Currently opting to maintain a dry solution in the
forecast with afternoon breezes likely Sunday and/or Monday
afternoons.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions continue at all TAF sites through the
next 24 hours with generally light winds expected.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Under building high pressure to start the week,
the area will continue to remain warm and dry through the
Wednesday. Temperatures will gradually increase 2 to 3 degrees
each day into the upper 80s by Wednesday. The high pressure center
will pass through the area Tuesday keeping winds calm despite low
relative humidity values in the dry, stable environment. On
Wednesday however, in the western flank of strong high pressure,
southerly winds will increase especially in northern Nevada to
near critical fire weather speeds. Combined with low relative
humidity values in the afternoon elevated fire weather conditions
may be a concern Wednesday afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm
activity is not anticipated through Wednesday.


&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/92/92/99