Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
376 FXUS65 KLKN 201002 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 302 AM PDT Thu Jun 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Mostly sunny this morning with increasing clouds in the afternoon. Temperatures continue to trend warmer, with highs today in the 80s for most locations. Clouds largely diminish tonight, with another round of afternoon build-ups on Friday. Highs Friday afternoon will warm a few more degrees, with mid 80s to mid 90s in valleys across the region. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night. Dry today with increasing clouds in the afternoon. Highs today will be 5-8 degrees warmer than Wednesday, with most valley locations in the 80s. The warming trend continues Friday with highs climbing another 2-5 degrees, with mid 80s to low 90s across the region. Clouds increase over most of the region Friday afternoon with some cumulus build-ups over the eastern half of the CWA. Latest model guidance has a slight increase in thunderstorm chances for Friday afternoon though still not enough to add any thunderstorms to the forecast. .LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday. Southwesterly flow resides over the forecast area by Saturday as the upper level trof continues to weaken while high pressure retrogrades from the southeastern U.S. into the four corners region. High pressure remains in place thru mid week. Nevada looks to be mostly dry thru mid week with afternoon cumulus present each day. The typical afternoon breezes will also be noted with gusts around 20 mph. That said, there currently looks to be slightly better probability for cumulus buildups Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons along the Utah border as well as a chance for a dry thunderstorm or two. Temperatures remain warm thru mid week with daytime highs persisting in the upper 80s to upper 90s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Deep upper low indicated to move into the PacNW Thursday which would bring a cold front into northern Nevada from the northwest. Low probability of showers and gusty winds will likely be the main effect along with temperatures cooling a few degrees. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions through Thursday. Winds will be light of the W at 5KT to 15KT with gusts to 25KT across N NV. Breezy winds out of the SW at 10KT to 20KT with gusts up to 30KT will be possible for central NV. && .FIRE WEATHER...The pattern through Friday continues to be increasing clouds each afternoon, diminishing clouds overnight, with temperatures trending warmer. Dry conditions are still expected through Friday, though there is a 5-14% chance of isolated dry thunderstorms Friday afternoon over mainly portions of zones 469, 470 and eastern portions of 425. For now however thunderstorms are not in the forecast on Friday (or any day through the middle of next week). Well above normal temperatures this weekend and into next week, with 90s to possibly low 100s in valley locations. Fuels will continue to cure as warm (to very warm) and dry conditions persist this weekend and into next week. && .HYDROLOGY...The recent stretch of cool temperatures has slowed the rate of high elevation snowmelt, which has in turn reduced the flow on creeks and rivers coming off snow covered higher terrain. Temperatures trend warmer the rest of the week, with well above normal temperatures continuing into next week. Rises on some area streams and creeks coming off higher terrain are expected late this week, but for now not expecting any new flooding as the snowpack is greatly diminished. The mainstem Humboldt River near Comus will continue with elevated flows today and into Friday, with the flow expected to drop below monitoring stage later on Friday. Wildhorse Reservoir remains elevated and will remain in action stage for the next several days. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && $$ 96/92/98/96