Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
342 FXUS65 KLKN 242155 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 255 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures will be joined by thunderstorm chances Tuesday and Wednesday as a mid level moisture plume is steered into the state by a strong upper level ridge. However, a cool front passing through will bring fire weather concerns Wednesday, but cooler temps for some Thursday. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night The Silver State continues to remain between two major upper level features as the first week of Summer begins. The first main upper level feature is the upper level troughing over the Canadian Maritime, shortwave working through the strong westerly flow will help drive a front through northern Nevada but not until Wednesday. The second feature, and the main player for Tonight and Tuesday is a strong subtropical ridge of high pressure that will meander between New Mexico and the Rio Grande valley of western Texas. The second component of this feature is the moist monsoonal flow that also has some of the associated moisture from former Atlantic tropical storm Alberto in the mid levels. This moisture will be steered north into NV by the upper ridge as the ridge itself drifts westward over Arizona. For Monday as the moist flow begins its approach will be for some convective buildups and maybe some virga mainly along and south of US-50. For Tuesday the flow will be thicker ans may support an isolated to scattered mix of dry and wet thunderstorms across west central NV. Considering that the surface layer is very dry, it will take some time for the mid level moisture used by storms to make it to the surface in the form of rain. So probabilities favor more dry than wet storms for Tuesday evening and with the dry conditions and warm temperatures, fire weather concerns are starting to creep back into view. Temperatures will continue to be above normal, with highs ranging in the upper 80s to upper 90s and with a few locals seeing 100. Overnight lows wont provide much relief from the heat, but with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s current heat product for SE Elko is in good standing as Salt-flat lows will hover in the low 70s. Winds will be on the uptick Tuesday afternoon as the upper level trough moves closer the the area, as W to SW winds of 10 MPH to 20 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday Ample atmospheric moisture along with a transiting short wave through the region will spark off showers and thunderstorms across much of eastern Nevada. PWAT anomalies of 3 to close to 4 standard deviations will be across the area as a result of a plume of moisture expected to move over the region through Wednesday from the eastern Pacific. The thermodynamic conditions will be favorable for convection but forcing will be weak as the subtle short wave traverses eastward across northern Nevada. Winds however will respond to an increasing pressure gradient in northwest Nevada. This combined with a very dry sub cloud layer will promote critical fire weather conditions across Humboldt County and portions of Lander county. With scattered convection around the area Wednesday, expect at the least gusty outflow winds and some cloud to ground lightning with a few areas receiving wetting rains, but not many. Temperatures Wednesday will reach into the 90s in valleys. Moisture will be largely pushed eastward Wednesday night into Thursday as a cold front moves through the region. Temperatures will be knocked down to a more comfortable mix of lower to mid 80s across northern Nevada with 90s remaining US-50 southward. WEst winds will be elevated but lower temperatures humidity will be above critically low thresholds across northeastern Nevada.A few showers along the Utah/Nevada border are possible but not widespread and favored over higher terrain. Dry conditions move back into the region under zonal flow by Friday. Hotter temperatures in the 90s area wide return for the weekend. Another trough skirts the area to the north but confidence is a bit low in terms of impacts. Minimal impacts are expected as of now but that may change in the coming days. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through tonight across the area. High Gusty afternoon winds from the west-southwest are expected this afternoon, diminishing into the evening hours. Wind gusts as high as 25 knots. High based cumulus buildups mainly over mountain ranges will dissipate this evening as well. There is a chance for rain showers near KPTH but probability is below 10% so withheld VCSH in TAF for now. Additional mid to upper-level moisture will move into central and northeastern Nevada Tuesday allowing for more widespread convection including isolated dry thunderstorms. Gusty outflow winds and lightning will be the primary threats starting around 20Z. Winds during the day on Tuesday will be lighter than today, generally from the west and southwest at 10-15 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER...Above normal temperatures will continue through mid week as highs range in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Low humidity in the 10% to 15% range as well as a slight up tick in WSW winds Tuesday, and a cold front driving stronger winds out of WSW to WNW at 15 MPH to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH on Wednesday will keep fire concerns near critical. In addition the the winds an low RH, chances for a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across central NV Tuesday and most of NV Wednesday. Another consideration is fuels and fuel loading, and with near cured to cured fine fuels, went ahead and issued a fire weather watch for Wednesday evening for zones 437 and 424 in northern Nevada. After the frontal passage RH and winds will recover, and along with cooler temps for Thursday and Friday help ease concerns through the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY...Temperatures remain well above normal, with rises on some area streams and creeks coming off higher terrain expected over the next few days. However, flooding concerns are diminishing as the snow pack is greatly diminished. The water level on Wildhorse Reservoir has fallen below action stage so the flood advisory has been cancelled. The reservoir level is expected to continue to slowly decline through this week. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening Humboldt County-Quinn...Southeastern Humboldt County and northern Lander County. Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday Southeastern Elko County. && $$ 98/93/93/98/93