Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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787 FXUS66 KLOX 280019 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 519 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS...27/116 PM. Slight cooling is expected today and Friday as high pressure aloft weakens. Gusty northwest winds will affect southwestern Santa Barbara County and the Interstate 5 Corridor tonight. Warmer weather is expected over the weekend as high pressure returns, and above normal temperatures will continue through next week. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...27/107 PM. Synoptically, the area is still under the western portion of a 593 dam high centered over southern New Mexico. To our north, a 559 dam low is trekking roughly along the US/Can border. By Saturday the low will make it to the Great Lakes region and the high begins to build back in over northern Texas. While this high pushes in from the east, by Tuesday the eastPac 597 dam high begins to approach us from the west. Higher heights look to remain over most of California through the extended in what may be a prolonged heat event. Skies are mostly clear except for the coast in the southern portion of the central coast. Temps are down 3-5 degrees in most locations except for the coastal strip along the SBA south coast through Long Beach that saw some extra sunshine this morning. N-S gradients are forecast to increase very slightly across SBA County tonight, so expect another round of low-end wind advisory level NW winds across the western portions of the south coast of SBA County and the western Santa Ynez Range. Have issued wind advisories there for late this afternoon thru late tonight. Gusty winds thru the I-5 Corridor will also return tonight but should stay below advisory levels. Expecting more widespread low clouds tonight, affecting most coastal areas (with the exception of the S coast of SBA County due to the N flow). on Friday a weak short wave trough will approach the West Coast. Heights will actually fall a bit, as will temps at 850/950 mb. Should stratus become widespread Fri morning, clouds may linger into the afternoon, especially near the coast. Max temps may be down a couple of degrees in most areas on Fri. Heights will begin to rise across the region on Saturday as a large upper high over the southeastern U.S. gradually expands westward. There should be areas of low clouds and fog in coastal and some lower valley areas Sat morning, but clearing should be rather quick. Height rises and warming at 950 mb should bring several degrees of warming in most areas Sat, especially away from the coast. The best warming will likely be in the valleys as the marine inversion lowers, decreasing the marine influence there. High temps may rise well into the 90s in the warmest locations in the valleys of L.A. County on Sat. Gradients should be steep enough for some gusty winds in southwestern SBA County and thru the I-5 Corridor Sat night, possibly to advisory levels. The upper high will continue to expand westward on Sunday causing heights to rise. Onshore flow will weaken, and the marine layer will become increasingly shallow. Low clouds Sunday morning should be confined to locations within a few miles of the coast. Max temps will likely exceed 100 degrees in the Antelope Valley, Paso Robles and the interior valleys of SLO County, with highs near 100 degrees in some of the warmer locations in the valleys of VTU/L.A. Counties. Gradients could again drive near advisory strength gusty wind in southwestern SBA County and thru the I-5 Corridor. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...27/114 PM. Heights will change little from Sunday into Monday so expect only minor changes in night/morning low cloud coverage and temperatures. There is still uncertainty in the forecast, but ensembles include the possibilty of developing the upper high in the eastern Pacific on Tuesday through at least Thursday, with high heights across the region, and continued hot, to very hot, weather - especially across the interior where temperatures could exceed 100-105 degrees. There is growing concern that this could become a potentially hazardous heatwave with impacts around the 4th of July. && .AVIATION...28/0017Z. At 2314Z over LAX, the marine layer was 900 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 5300 feet and 24 degrees Celsius. High confidence in VFR conditions through Friday at KPRB KWJF KPMD. All other sites with the exception of KSBA have a chance of ceilings tonight into Friday. Best chances for cigs at KSMX, KLAX, KSMO and KLGB. If cigs reach KBUR and KVNY, clouds will likely be brief. Expecting mostly MVFR to IFR conditions, however brief LIFR conditions are possible at KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB. KLAX...Moderate confidence in VFR conditions through 09Z. Low to moderate confidence in cigs tonight, with potential for brief cigs around 02Z. Cigs may arrive as early as 09Z, and become more likely after 12Z. There is potential for an east wind component up to 6 kt from 10 to 15Z, with high confidence it will remain under 8 kt. KBUR...Low confidence in IFR to MVFR cigs arriving after 12Z tonight. Cigs will likely be short-lived if they do occur. High confidence in seasonal winds. && .MARINE...27/906 AM. Dense fog will impact the waters off the Central Coast this morning, with reduced visibilities possibly lasting through the afternoon and evening. There is a moderate threat for dense fog again tonight into Friday for the same area. Moderate confidence in low-end Gale conditions for the offshore waters from the Central Coast to San Miguel Island by this afternoon. There is a 20 percent chance of these Gales extending south to San Nicolas Island, otherwise high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds. SCA level west to northwest winds will push into the Santa Barbara Channel as well but high confidence that they will stay confined to the western half. There is a 30 percent chance tonight that enough of the channel will be covered with these winds to warrant an SCA. High confidence that winds will decrease each day Friday through Saturday, but will increase again Sunday and Monday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...DB/jld AVIATION...Phillips/Lewis MARINE...Kittell SYNOPSIS...jld weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox