605
FXUS63 KLSX 260105
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
805 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.UPDATE...
Issued at 802 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Initial complex of storms has moved into the southern periphery of
the forecast area this afternoon with a large area of stratiform
rain and clouds behind it. While additional storms have formed
over Iowa and are trying to sink southward, they will be running
into air which has already been worked over with little chance for
recovery. The most likely scenario remaining for the overnight is
storms over Nebraska and western Iowa congealing into an MCS and
pushing southward through western and central Missouri overnight.
This would still pose a threat for damaging winds overnight, but
this threat has shifted a bit west from earlier expectations due
to the effects of the earlier convection today.

Kimble

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous levels of heat will continue through early this
  evening for portions of the area, as heat index values climb to
  around 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through
  this evening where confidence is highest in these values and
  impacts.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this evening
  and/or overnight. A few of these storms may become strong to
  severe, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts.


&&

.SHORT TERM... (Through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A cold front is currently stretched west to east across Iowa and far
northern Illinois. Convection just ahead of the front from this
morning has maintained itself into the afternoon and formed several
outflow boundaries that are moving southward over the CWA. South of
the front and outflows is a hot airmass with widespread temperatures
in the mid to upper 90s, with locations within the St. Louis metro
currently around 100 degrees. With dew points in the upper 60s to
low 70s, this heat has yielded 3,000+ J/kg of SBCAPE per recent SPC
mesoanalysis. While this amount of instability ahead of outflow
boundaries and among ongoing convection is concerning, 0-6 km bulk
shear remains relatively weak (20 kts or less), leading to updrafts
being mostly short-lived baring an organized cold pool. Given the
inverted "V" seen in local soundings among models and ACARS out of
Lambert Airport (KSTL), damaging wind gusts continue to be the
primary concern with any convection this afternoon. While severe
hail (1" in diameter) is possible, the freezing level and warm low-
level temperatures will likely make it quite difficult for severe-
size hail stones to reach the surface. This threat will be mostly
confined to west-central Illinois in the near this afternoon.

A complicated convective scenario remains for this evening and
tonight across the area. Currently, a weak shortwave/MCV is drifting
eastward toward the CWA across western Missouri. There is a low
chance that this feature may produce isolated convection across
portions of central and eastern Missouri late this afternoon and
evening, and if this occurs, the primary threat would be damaging
wind gusts. Additional convection is expected along the cold front
later tonight as it sags further southward toward the area.
Instability will have decreased, but still be on the order of
around 1,500 J/kg for MUCAPE. Shear will remain weaker at around 20
kts, leading to multicell convection that CAMs show congealing
across Iowa and moving south-southeastward toward the CWA as an MCS.
This round of convection has the greatest chance to be strong to
severe where it tracks, with the main threat being damaging wind
gusts. CAMs have varied with the track and timing of this MCS,
though at least have been consistently trending slower with the
system. Current thinking is that it will move into the CWA around
3am and exit through Wednesday morning.

The front will slowly move through and exit the CWA in the wake of
the convection tomorrow morning, with northerly low-level flow
advecting cooler air into the CWA. This, paired with lingering cloud
cover for portions of the area, will keep temperatures relatively
cooler CWA-wide, with afternoon temperatures remaining in the mid to
upper-80s.

Elmore

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The consensus among ensemble clusters and deterministic guidance is
that upper-level ridging will gradually build back into the Middle
Mississippi Valley on Thursday. As a result, high pressure at the
surface will shift eastward, causing low-level flow to become
increasingly southerly-southeasterly. While the more
southeasterly component of the winds does not support robust warm-
air advection, a majority of global ensemble members show 850 mb
temperatures rising by a couple of degrees through the day,
climatologically favoring a slight bump in temperatures at the
surface compared to Wednesday mainly along and south of I-70.

The upper-level ridge builds further into the region on Friday as a
trough digs across the Northern Plains. Upper-level flow over the
Middle Mississippi Valley will become increasingly southwesterly,
and the previously mentioned surface high will continue to shift
eastward. Low-level flow will become more southerly, advecting
warmer air into the region and pushing 850 mb temperatures to at
least 20 degrees C (roughly the 25th percentile of ensemble
guidance). The result will be a return of surface temperatures in
the low to mid-90s. However, a potential limiting factor to this
heat is convection during the day associated with a shortwave
traversing the northern periphery of the ridge. If this convection
and/or convective debris passes through the CWA, we could see
resulting temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than currently forecast.

Guidance consensus is that a cold front associated with the main
upper-level trough will move through the region sometime Saturday as
the trough traverses the Upper-Midwest. At this lead time, spread is
understandably large in the timing of this front. If the front is
quicker, temperatures on Saturday may only top out in the low to mid-
80s. If the front is slower, temperatures may reach the low to mid-
90s. Regardless, quasi-zonal to northwesterly flow aloft and
northerly surface flow behind the front will keep temperatures
cooler for at least Sunday before ridging builds back in to the
region early next week, marking the return of a period of heat.

Elmore

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Scattered thunderstorms and numerous outflow boundaries are
ongoing across the region, and these will impact all local
terminals through the first couple of hours of the forecast
period. After a lull in convection this evening, another
thunderstorm complex is expected tonight; however, there is still
uncertainty in its exact path and timing. The current timing in
the TAFs represents when confidence is greatest, but early or
later timing is possible. Once the storm complex moves through,
low stratus is expected to impact KUIN, KSTL, KSUS, and KCPS. As a
cold front moves through the area, this will help push the stratus
out and bring VFR flight conditions to the local terminals.

Elmore

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

With hot temperatures forecast, here are some of the daily high
temperature records:

            MON JUN 24     TUE JUN 25
ST LOUIS    102 in 1988    102 in 1954
COLUMBIA    103 in 1988    102 in 1988
QUINCY       99 in 1988    102 in 1931


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX