764
FXUS64 KLUB 300100 AAA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
800 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

PoPs have been removed across the extreme southern TX PH for the
remainder of the night. A belt of scattered thunderstorms arcs from
east-central NM and into the TX PH, with the convection in the TX PH
being displaced at least 30 miles north of the CWA border. In-situ,
satellite, and WSR-88D trends indicate that the outflow-modified
surface trough responsible for forcing parcels to the LFC continues
to propagate northwestward towards TCC. Chances for additional
convective development are now over across the extreme southern TX
PH as the stalled front will remain to the north and west of the
CWA, especially as the outflow-modified surface trough interacts
with the front. Southwesterly flow throughout the steering layer
across eastern NM that becomes westward over the TX PH will govern
storm motions away from the northern zones with the aforementioned
multi-cellular clusters that are ongoing. The position of the
subtropical ridge and its related subsidence in the mid-levels as
per recent water-vapor imagery will also suppress any further
convective development even if outflow associated with the
thunderstorms near the I-40 corridor propagate southward into the
extreme southern TX PH as the boundary-layer decouples and diabatic
stabilization occurs.

Sincavage

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Quasi-zonal flow aloft has settled over the area today with
S-southeasterly flow at the surface. Lift from a surface boundary
stalled north and west of I27 will continue to aid in isolated
storm coverage. Despite the zonal flow, weak perturbations in the
midlevel flow, a stalled front bisecting AMAs CWA, SBCAPEs on the
order of 1000 J/kg, dewpoints in the 60s and highs well into the
upper 90s to low 100s will all help to increase convective
coverage as the afternoon wears on across much of the extreme
southern Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. Some storms
may become strong and may pose a damaging wind hazard. It should
be noted that any meandering of the stalled front could result in
more or less storm coverage across the northern portions of our
forecast area.

Convection overnight into tomorrow will begin to wane as the
aforementioned front moves north and eastward. However, outflow
boundaries from storms to our north and northeast overnight could
move into our area and depending on moisture availability we could see
a few morning storms across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle. As
noted in the previous forecast if these same outflow boundaries
drift further south into the LUB CWA by afternoon they could serve
as a focus for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. For now that
looks unlikely, thus a dry forecast has been published.

Tonight lows will fall into the mid to upper 70s area wide with
mostly clear skies. Tomorrow heat and humidity return high
temperatures in the 90s and low 100s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Expansive upper level ridging will continue to be the main driver of
our weather over the next several days. Compared to days past, the
ridge will center slightly further east beginning late Sunday which
will result in a period of drying and subsidence aloft which keeps
precipitation chances near zero area-wide on Monday. The heat will
also ramp up on Monday and especially on Tuesday as layer
thicknesses increase and surface troughing to our north maintains a
modest westerly downslope component, which will likely result in
heat advisory criteria being met once again in the lower
elevations off the Caprock. Upper ridging will begin flattening
and will shift even farther eastward over the lower MS Valley
beginning on Tuesday, which will result in a return of potentially
more unsettled southwesterly flow aloft late Tuesday through
Thursday. The monsoonal moisture plume will consequently bend back
southward over eastern NM into the TX Panhandle which will bring
modest afternoon and evening storm chances to portions of the
region during the mid-late week period. Similar to last week
though, weak steering flow aloft should keep this activity
unorganized and confined mainly to the far SW TX Panhandle and
areas along the TX/NM state line. The overall pattern evolution
becomes more uncertain late week into the weekend, although
general model consensus suggests a northwesterly flow regime may
establish as upper ridging builds over the Pacific coast and broad
cyclonic flow establishes over the eastern CONUS. In general,
this would be a more favorable setup for higher rain chances
across more of our area, with cooler temperatures also looking
likely for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR prevails for the TAF period with breezy, southeasterly winds
diminishing after dark. Winds will also veer southward towards
sunrise. Potential for convection affecting KCDS overnight is
very low. Check density altitude.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...09
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...09