Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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588 FXUS64 KMAF 230442 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1142 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The warm-up is well underway today, with only a few high clouds to be seen across the west, and scattered cumulus across the south and east. Highs are on target to top out a few degrees below normal this afternoon, in the lower to middle 90s across the plains, upper 80s in the mountains, and around 100 degrees along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend. Increasing subsidence due to the westward expansion of the southern CONUS ridge of high pressure largely puts a lid on potential convection today, aside from a shower or thunderstorm or two across the highest elevations of the Davis Mountains during the late afternoon. Continued southerly to southeasterly surface flow will maintain some semblance of low- level moisture across the area, yielding a quiescent night tonight with lows progged to drop into the middle 60s to lower 70s for most. Heading into Sunday, the warm- up continues as the ridge exerts even more influence over the region, with increasing heights and a developing thermal ridge yielding above normal highs in the middle to upper 90s for most, and 100s along the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys. Given the intense heating, confidence is greater that a few isolated diurnally-driven thunderstorms will develop over the Davis Mountains, though these storms will generally remain confined to the higher terrain and immediately adjacent areas. Otherwise, hot and dry will be the rule, continuing well into the extended. JP && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Warmer than average highs for late June are expected in the long term. Temperatures rise into the 90s and 100s each day as as upper ridging that built W from southern and northeast CONUS this weekend holds. Under southeast flow and a mix of clouds each night, lows 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late June are also forecast, with 70s, 60s in the higher elevations, Marfa Plateau, and lower Trans Pecos. Two subtle atmospheric patterns could evolve: either ridging stays in place and maintains strength, or ridging weakens allowing a weak cold front or dryline to move in from the north as a trough over the Pac NW is able to dig farther southeast. The former is what European ENS ensembles are showing. The latter are what the GFS and Canadian ensembles are showing. Highs this week have trended lower Wednesday into next weekend, so it is likely that while the ridging will hold, it will weaken enough for slightly "cooler" air to the north and west to make its way into the area midweek. This is also reflected in how lows have trended slightly lower over northern Lea County, northern Permian Basin, and Marfa Plateau into lower Trans Pecos for midweek into next weekend. Went with NBM guidance for temperatures regardless. If the upper air pattern develops more in line with the ENS solution, we could be looking at a wider area of triple digit readings along the Pecos River, Permian Basin, and Reeves County plains into Stockton Plateau. We would also see rain chances remain confined to elevated heating of terrain over the Sacramento Foothills and Davis Mountains. If the upper air pattern develops more in line with the GFS and Canadian solutions, we could be seeing highs above the triple digit mark only in the usual warmer spots along the Pecos River and over the Reeves County plains as well as near the Rio Grande, with upper 90s at most over the Permian Basin into Terrell County. Additionally, with fronts able to move into the area with weaker ridging as opposed to staying farther north if there`s stronger ridging, we may see more widespread shower and storm chances over the SE NM plains into regions in W TX closer to the Pecos River, as well as the northwestern Permian Basin. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 VFR prevails with southeast winds around 10-15 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 70 99 72 99 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 69 98 72 99 / 0 0 0 10 Dryden 70 98 72 96 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 68 97 71 99 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 68 91 70 92 / 10 10 0 10 Hobbs 65 96 68 97 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 59 93 61 94 / 0 10 0 10 Midland Intl Airport 69 97 71 97 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 69 96 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 71 100 72 101 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...29