218
ACUS11 KWNS 152244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152244
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-160015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1276
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0544 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Areas affected...Eastern NE...northeast KS...southeast SD...western
IA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 418...

Valid 152244Z - 160015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 418 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat may increase into this evening, along
with continued hail and damaging-wind potential.

DISCUSSION...Supercells have recently developed across northeast NE,
with another somewhat less organized cluster moving northeastward
out of southeast NE. Gradual heating and moistening through the day
has resulted in moderate to strong destabilization, with MLCAPE of
2000-3000 J/kg across the region per recent objective mesoanalyses.
The low-level wind profile depicted by KOAX and KFSD VWPs is
favorable for potentially tornadic supercells, with favorable
hodograph curvature (0-1 km SRH of greater than 150 m2/s2) and 30-40
kt of flow at 1-3 km above the surface. Rather modest midlevel flow
is less favorable, though, which could result in a tendency toward
storm clustering with time.

The greatest short-term tornado threat appears to reside across
northeast NE, given the presence of ongoing semi-discrete
supercells. However, the environment downstream of the southeast NE
storm cluster also remains favorable for a tornado or two as
convection approaches the MO River Valley early this evening, along
with some threat for isolated hail and damaging wind.

..Dean.. 06/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   39709759 41829816 42469820 43059759 43229655 43019599
            40839568 40039556 39599660 39599707 39709759