Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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061
ACUS11 KWNS 262229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262229
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-270000-
Mesoscale Discussion 1434
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024
Areas affected...Southeast Colorado into northern Texas
Panhandle..Oklahoma Panhandle...far southwest Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 262229Z - 270000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Though coverage may remain isolated, the strongest storms
will be capable of large hail and severe winds. Trends will be
monitored for a possible watch late this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Moist upslope flow into the Raton Mesa and nearby
vicinity has led to a cluster storms within parts of the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle as well as more isolated development in
southeastern Colorado. Modest westerly mid-level winds within the
upper-level ridge atop easterly/southeasterly surface winds have
promoted modest effective shear of around 30-35 kts. Given weak
forcing, storm organization my remain relatively brief/sporadic and
coverage of severe storms may remain isolated. The strongest storms
will be capable of large hail and severe winds. It is possible that
a more organized wind threat could materialize if storms can
cluster. A northward moving boundary in southeast Colorado could
provide a focus for this. A watch is possible, but with coverage
being uncertain, convective trends will continue to be monitored
late this afternoon.
..Wendt/Smith.. 06/26/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 37280389 37440405 37640415 38220402 38440324 38350254
37960199 37740182 36790112 36220114 36020146 35950219
36040271 36490327 37280389