061
ACUS11 KWNS 302154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302154
COZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-302330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1497
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Areas affected...the central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 302154Z - 302330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind and hail threats should persist along
and east of the lee trough this evening. While a watch is uncertain
over most of the region amid isolated to widely spaced storms and a
relatively lower-end severe threat, we are monitoring for a small
severe thunderstorm watch if greater storm concentration becomes
apparent.

DISCUSSION...Isolated, widely spaced thunderstorms have developed
from northeast WY to southeast CO within the western plume of 50s
surface dew points across the central High Plains. Thus far, a
measured wind gust of 65 mph occurred with a cell crossing I-25
north of Cheyenne last hour, with a 1.5 inch hail report separately
in Platte County, WY. Relatively greater buoyancy should be confined
to the east-southeast CO portion amid low to mid 60s surface dew
points across the Raton Mesa to Palmer Divide. Deep-layer shear was
sampled at 30-35 kts per the Cheyenne and Denver VWP data, which
will support transient supercell structures within the more robust
updrafts. But relatively warm mid-level temperatures, especially
across CO where -4 to -6 C at 500 mb is more prevalent, will
probably limit hail sizes and parcel accelerations to some extent.
Early afternoon guidance suggests convection within the CO portion
may persist longer into the evening, aided by the larger buoyancy
and modest increase in low-level flow. If in increase in clustering
becomes more readily apparent, a small severe thunderstorm watch
will be considered.

..Grams/Smith.. 06/30/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   44620455 41740348 38490288 37260406 37390522 38850539
            39500498 41440497 43540522 44170528 44620455